Short-Term Tropical Climate Variability

本项目包括三个研究方向：a)行星尺度辐散环流的季节和季节内时间尺度的时间变化和维持；B)与印度季风生命周期、阻塞和1982-1983年厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件有关的大气旋转环流的低频变化；以及c)使用统计-经验方案对印度季风进行长期预报。将使用由国家气象中心和欧洲中期天气预报中心的全球数据同化系统产生的1978-1987年发出的长波辐射和业务数据。一个多层、斜压、线性原始方程模式也将用于补充第二个研究重点中提出的诊断分析。这项研究之所以重要，是因为它寻求加强对社会经济活动重要的时间尺度上的气候变异性的理解。

Three research thrusts are included in this project: a) time variation and maintenance of the planetary-scale divergent circulation with seasonal and intraseasonal time scales; b) low-frequency variability of the atmospheric rotational circulation associated with the Indian monsoon life cycle, blocking, and the 1982-1983 El Nino/Southern Oscillation event; and c) long-range forecast of the Indian monsoon with a statistical- empirical scheme. The 1978-1987 outgoing longwave radiation and operational data generated by the global data assimilation systems of the National Meteorological Center and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts will be used. A multilevel, baroclinic, linear primitive-equation model will also be applied to supplement the diagnostic analysis proposed in the second research thrust. This research is important because it seeks to enhance understanding of climate variability on time scales important to social-economic activities.