Topics in Macro Economics

本项目探讨宏观经济学中一系列相关的核心问题。其中一组问题涉及世界经济中的储蓄和投资。例如，当国际资本市场似乎高度一体化时，为什么国民储蓄率和投资率如此高度相关？另一组问题涉及股票溢价的大小和资产价格的可变性。例如，对经济的特定冲击所产生的不确定性如何影响所需的股本回报率及其可变性。这项研究很重要，因为它将更好地理解货币和财政政策如何影响储蓄和投资行为。这些问题是使用最新发展的技术来分析动态，随机经济的均衡。重点是获得定量模型预测，并将这些预测与适当的数据进行比较。虽然使用的模型是均衡模型，但分析并不局限于均衡是帕累托最优的环境。事实上，拟议研究的一个重要组成部分是对经济环境的分析，在经济环境中，个人通过金融市场分担风险的机会受到重要限制。

This project addresses a set of related, central questions in macroeconomics. One set of questions involves savings and investment in the world economy. For example, why are national savings and investment rates so highly correlated when there appears to be highly integrated international capital markets? Another set of questions involves the magnitude of equity premium and the variability of asset prices. For example, how does the presence of uncertainty arising from specific shocks to the economy affect the required return on equity and its variability. This research is important because it will provide a better understanding of how monetary and fiscal policy affect savings and investment behavior. These issues are investigated using recently-developed techniques for analyzing equilibria in dynamic, stochastic economies. The emphasis is on obtaining quantitative model predictions, and comparing these predictions with appropriate data. Although the models used are equilibrium models, the analysis is not confined to environments in which equilibrium is Pareto optimal. In fact, an important component of the proposed research is the analysis of economic environments in which there are important constraints on the opportunities of individuals to pool risks via financial markets.