Improvement of Earthquake Loss Prediction Model Based on theLoma Prieta Earthquake

这是一个事后调查项目，目的是从洛马普里埃塔地震(1989年10月)中吸取工程经验教训。该项目的目标是根据10月17日洛马普里塔地震的观测结果，改进现有地震损失估计模型的可靠性。研究将集中在两个问题上：*由于某些土壤条件而导致的地面运动放大，以及*各类建筑物损失估计基准表的贝叶斯更新。这项研究将包括四项任务：(1)数据收集和处理，(2)土壤放大模型的建立，(3)强度-破坏关系的贝叶斯更新，以及(4)对斯坦福大学研究人员早些时候开发的更新的综合损失估计模型的校准。该项目的成功完成将推动地震风险管理的最新水平，造福于社会各阶层。

This a post-event investigation project to learn engineering lessons from the Loma Prieta earthquake (October 1989). The objective of this project is to improve the reliability of the existing earthquake loss estimation models based upon observations of the October 17 Loma Prieta earthquake. Research will be focused on two issues: * the amplification of ground motion due to certain soil conditions, and * a Bayesian update of the loss estimate matricies for various classes of buildings. The study will comprise of four tasks: (1) Data collecting and processing, (2) development of soil amplification model, (3) Bayesian update of intensity-damage relationships, and (4) calibration of the updated integrated loss estimation model developed earlier by the investigators at Stanford University. A successful completion of the project will advance the state of the art in earthquake risk management to the benefit of all segments of society.