Prediction and the evaluation of theories by scientists

一些科学哲学家声称， 科学家给予更大的权重（或应该给予更大的权重） 到成功预测了 未知的事实，而不是理论，只解释或推断 已知的事实。 布拉什教授正在研究 历史案例研究，以找出是否 科学家们实际上遵循这一规则，更普遍地说， 预测的成功或失败会影响接收 的理论。 一些可能的案例研究包括爱因斯坦的 光的引力弯曲的预测 对等离子体和电的行为的预测， 磁层和行星际空间的磁场， 狄拉克相对论性对正电子的预言 量子力学，电磁波，从麦克斯韦的 理论，从盖尔的欧米茄-负粒子的预测， 曼恩的“八重方式”对称理论，克莱洛的预测 哈雷彗星和门捷列夫彗星回归的日期 预测新的化学元素，以填补他的空白， 元素周期表 这项研究的结果应该有助于 阐明科学家接受或拒绝理论的原因。

It has been claimed by some philosophers of science that scientists give greater weight (or should give greater weight) to theories that make successful predictions of previously unknown facts, than to theories that only explain or deduce facts already known. Professor Brush is examining several historical case studies in order to find out whether scientists actually follow this rule, and more generally how the success or failure of predictions affects the reception of theories. Some possible case studies include Einstein's prediction of the gravitational bending of light; Alfven's predictions about the behavior of plasmas and electric and magnetic fields in the magnetosphere and interplanetary space, the prediction of the positron from Dirac's relativistic quantum mechanics, electromagnetic waves from Maxwell's theory, the prediction of the omega-minus particle from Gell- Mann's "eight-fold way" symmetry theory, Clairaut's prediction of the date when Halley's comet would return, and Mendeleev's prediction of new chemical elements to fill the gaps in his periodic table. The results of this research should help to clarify the reasons why scientists accept or reject theories.