U.S.-France Cooperative Research: Multinational EconometricPolicy Analysis

该奖项将支持美国和法国研究人员在多国计量经济政策分析方面的联合研究。美国调查人员是：加州大学圣地亚哥分校的Robert F. Engle博士、Clive W. Granger博士和Halbert L. White博士。法国的合作者是：艾克斯-马赛第二和第三大学的Michel Lubrano博士、Luc Bauwens博士和Russell Davidson博士。该项目的目标是发展和应用统计技术来评价政策模型。计量经济学家和应用经济学家最重要的活动之一可能是为政策制定者提供模型，以帮助他们确定适当的政策。然而，这些模型不仅必须通过标准规范测试和评估过程，而且还必须显示它们与策略目的相关。这些模型的测试程序是非常初步的，需要进一步的理论和实证发展。在这个项目中，研究人员将检查和应用计量经济学方法来研究现有的模型。理论发展将与实证研究相结合，实证研究将考察各国产出和资产价格的共同走势。美国和法国的集团在计量经济学的理论和实践，以及测试和测试程序的开发和应用方面都有丰富的经验。特别是，法国调查人员为项目带来了基于与使用人工回归相关的方法的测试程序的经验，以及贝叶斯规范测试。

This award will support joint research between US and French researchers on the topic of multinational econometric policy analysis. The US investigators are: Dr. Robert F. Engle, Dr. Clive W. Granger, and Dr. Halbert L. White, University of California at San Diego. The collaborators in France are: Dr. Michel Lubrano, Dr. Luc Bauwens and Dr. Russell Davidson, University of Aix-Marseille II and III. The objective of the project is to develop and apply statistical techniques to evaluate policy models. Potentially one of the most important activities by econometricians and applied economists is the production of models to be used by policy makers to help them determine an appropriate policy. However, these models have to pass not only standard specification tests and evaluation procedures, but they also have to show that they are relevant for policy purposes. Testing procedures for these models are very preliminary and are in need of both further theoretical and empirical development. In this project, the investigators will examine and apply econometric methods to study existing models. Theoretical developments will be coupled with empirical studies, which examine the co-movements of output and asset prices across countries. Both the US and French groups have extensive experience in both the theory and practice of econometrics, as well as in the development and application of tests and testing procedures. In particular, the French investigators bring to the project experience of testing procedures based on methods associated with the use of artificial regressions, as well as Bayesian specification testing.