Interannual Variability of Tropical Climate

这一研究项目旨在扩大和扩大一项关于热带气候异常的一般环流功能的研究，并从诊断到预测。该方法主要是经验性的，但正在与GCM的应用相结合。今后几年，该项目将侧重于：(A)选定“机会目标”的气候预测；(B)对流与全球热带尺度上地表温度变化的关系；(C)印度洋季风系统的年际和年代际变化；(D)南大西洋辐合带。(A)已经制定了巴西东北部降雨量和圭亚那河流流量的高性能气候预测方法。在与当地同事的合作下，它打算将这些应用于业务。其他“机会目标”包括西非萨赫勒地区、东非沿海地区和南美洲南部的巴拉那河流域。(B)应结合新的地面、高空和卫星数据集，研究全球热带对流模式的年际变化，并结合地面温度条件的变化进行研究；经验分析应辅之以全球气候变化实验。(C)研究印度洋季风系统的变化时，应特别注意东非，那里的雨季处于行星级年度循环的过渡阶段。(D)南大西洋辐合带在南美洲夏季发展良好，对南美洲的降水状况起着重要作用。新数据库的组合引发了一项全面的诊断性调查。项目的组成部分是相互关联的。因此，对全球热带对流和地表温度的分析(B)还为两项区域诊断研究(c和d)服务，这反过来又为预测(A)奠定了更坚实的基础。这项研究之所以重要，是因为它试图更好地了解热带地区的气候过程，热带地区对地球其他地区的天气和气候有很大影响。

This research project seeks to extend and broaden a study concerned with the general-circulation functioning of tropical climate anomalies and leads from diagnostics to prediction. The approach is primarily empirical, but is being combined with GCM applications. The project shall over the next few years concentrate on (a) climate prediction for selected "targets of opportunity", (b) the relation of convection to surface temperature variations on the scale of the global tropics, (c) interannual and decadal-scale variations in the Indian Ocean monsoon systems, and (d) the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. (a) Climate prediction methods of high performance have been developed for Northeast Brazil rainfall and Guyana river discharge. In collaboration with local colleagues it is intended to bring these to operational application. Other "targets of opportunity" include the West African Sahel, the costal regions of Eastern Africa, and the Parana river catchment of southern South America. (b) Interannual variations of convective patterns over the global tropics shall be studied in relation to the varying surface temperature conditions, using a combination of novel surface, upper-air, and satellite-derived datasets; empirical analyses shall be complemented by GCM experiments. (c) Variations in the Indian Ocean monsoon systems shall be studied with particular attention to eastern Africa, where rainy seasons fall into transitions in the planetary-scale annual cycle. (d) The South Atlantic Convergence Zone is well developed in austral summer when it plays an important role in the rainfall regime of southern America. A combination of novel data banks invites a comprehensive diagnostic investigation. The project components are interrelated. Thus, analyses of convection and surface temperature in the global tropics (b) also serve two regional diagnostic studies (c and d), which in turn create firmer foundations for prediction (a). This research is important because it seeks to provide an improved understanding of climate processes in the tropics, an area of the globe that has strong influence on the weather and climate over the remainder of our planet.