Endogenous Fertility and the Environment:Dynamics and Welfare Implications

人们普遍认识到，人口压力是环境退化的最重要原因之一，特别是在发展中国家。环境质量对人们生育动机的影响没有得到充分认识。这个项目的重点是父母对孩子的渴望和对孩子未来福祉的关注对人口与环境之间动态关系的影响。该项目还调查了对儿童征税和对父母补贴的制度是否可以改善当代人的福利，以及这种税收/补贴政策对人口/环境相互作用的动态可能产生什么影响。发展中国家的人口与环境之间的关系也是全球变化的人的方面的一个重要组成部分，因为发展中国家的环境退化导致全球变暖，因为发展中国家持续的高人口增长率将使经济增长目标与可持续发展目标之间的协调变得越来越困难，如果不是不可能的话保护环境。本研究既有理论研究，也有实证研究。具体而言，本文推导了农业投入需求系统模型，并对其进行了描述和估计。该模型包括年龄和性别特定的劳动力需求方程。实证研究依赖于布基纳法索调查数据和巴基斯坦调查数据。前一组数据包含1981年至1985年期间布基纳法索农业生产的非常详细的资料，包括按年龄和性别分列的各种农业活动中家庭和雇佣劳动力的使用情况。后者的数据代表了巴基斯坦三个不同农业生态区的贫困家庭，并提供了关于这些家庭的社会经济和农业特征的非常详细的信息。

It is widely recognized that population pressure is one of the most important sources of environmental degradation, especially in developing countries. What is less fully appreciated is the impact of environmental quality on people's motives for having children. This project focuses on the implications of parents' desire for children and concern with the children's future well- being for the dynamic relation between population and environment. The project also investigates whether a system of taxes on children and subsidies to parents can be welfare- improving for members of the present generation and what affects such tax/subsidy policies may have on the dynamics of demographic/environmental interactions. The relation between population and the environment in developing countries is also an important part of the human dimensions of global change because environmental degradation in developing countries causes global warming and because continued high rates of population growth in developing countries will make it increasingly difficult if not impossible to reconcile goals for economic growth with the protection of the environment. The research is both theoretical and empirical. Specifically, an agricultural input demand systems model is derived, specified and estimated. This model includes age- and gender- specific labor demand equations. The empirical research relies on Burkina Faso Survey Data and Pakistan Survey Data. The former data set contains very detailed information on agricultural production in Burkina Faso over the period 1981 through 1985, including the use of household and hired labor, by age and sex, for a wide variety of agricultural activities. The latter data are representative of poor households in three distinct agroecological zones in Pakistan and provide very detailed information on the socioeconomic and agricultural characteristics of these families.