Very Short Term Prediction of Aviation Weather Parameters

这项研究将开发一种新的基于计算机的系统，以改进对航空敏感天气参数的极短期预测。强调为满足面向航空的天气预报的需要而设计的极短期预报，意味着必须基本上消除以前运行的数值模式所特有的“回旋”时期(通常持续6-12小时)。FDDA程序的开发将把各种常规和遥感观测同化到高分辨率中尺度数值模式的主导水动力方程系统中。这将包括短期和长期战略：1)主要基于广泛测试的牛顿松弛(轻推)技术，开发和测试适用于近期操作实施的程序，以及2)进行基础和开发研究，以探索更先进的伴随技术的可行性。将把FDDA程序与中尺度数值模式和统计模式结合起来，组成一个单一的工作系统，然后对实际数据事件进行测试，并与目前运行中的航空气象敏感产品进行比较。

This research will develop a new computer-based system for improving very short-term prediction of aviation-sensitive weather parameters. The emphasis on very short term predictions designed to meet the needs of aviation-oriented weather prediction means that the "spin-up" period (often lasting 6-12 hours) that is characteristic of previous operational numerical models must be virtually eliminated. The development of an FDDA procedure will assimilate a variety of conventional and remotely sensed observations into the governing hydrodynamic system of equations of the high-resolution mesoscale numerical model. This will include both short- and long-term strategies: 1) developing and testing a suitable procedure for near-term operational implementation based primarily on the widely tested Newtonian relaxation (nudging) technique, and 2) perform basic and developmental research to explore the feasibility of the more advance adjoint technique. The FDDA procedure, coupled with the mesoscale numerical model and the statistical model, will be combined into a single working system, which will then be tested on real data events and compared to current operational aviation weather-sensitive products.