Intertemporal Equilibrium: Theoretical Innovations and Applications

本项目研究的理论性质， 跨期一般均衡模型，并探讨了 应用这些模型分析这种政策的可能性 目前正在谈判的自由贸易协定， 加拿大、墨西哥和美国。 该项目有三 件. 第一部分是对均衡的理论研究 有大量代理人的动态博弈 在这种 模型，代理人的行为没有可以反馈的效果， 改变其他特工的行动 这一特点使得这些游戏 分析起来要比那些强调惩罚的重复博弈简单得多 策略和声誉的影响。 这种简单性允许 引入国家变量，如财富持有量， 资本货物，扮演着重要的角色。 该项目的第二个组成部分是一个理论和实证 跨期一般均衡模型 内生债务约束可以解释 个人消费。 债务约束的经济体将 研究和定性特征，他们的平衡将是 与传统借贷经济体相比， 约束 将构建并校准两个模型， 消费者支出调查数据，以研究如何以及债务约束 解释生命周期消费的模式以及 消费对个人收入的冲击。 该项目的第三个组成部分是制定标准 用于评估应用一般均衡的绩效 模型 这项研究的结果将有助于发展 分析潜在自由贸易影响的动态模型 加拿大、墨西哥和美国经济协定 states.

This project investigates the theoretical properties of intertemporal general equilibrium models and explores the possibilities for applying these models to analyze such policy changes as the free trade agreement currently being negotiated by Canada, Mexico, and the United States. The project has three components. The first is a theoretical investigation of equilibria of dynamic games with a large number of agents. In this kind of model, agents' actions do not have effects that can feed back by changing all other agents' actions. This feature makes these games simpler to analyze than repeated games that focus on punishment strategies and effects of reputation. This simplicity allows the introduction of state variables, such as wealth holdings and capital goods, that play an important role. The second component of the project is a theoretical and empirical investigation of how an intertemporal general equilibrium model with endogenous debt constraints can explain variations in individual consumption. The economies with debt constraints will be studied and the qualitative features of their equilibria will be contrasted with those of economies with more traditional borrowing constraints. Two models will be constructed and calibrated to Consumer Expenditure Survey Data to study how well debt constraints explain patterns in life-cycle consumption and responses of consumption to shocks in individual income. The third component of the project is the development of criteria for evaluating the performance of applied general equilibrium models. The results of this study would aid in the development of a dynamic model to analyze the impact of a potential free trade agreement on the economies of Canada, Mexico, and the United States.