Collaborative Research in Decision, Risk, and Management Science: Utility Theories with Joint Receipts and Reference Levels

[308915]冯·温特费尔特（Von Winterfeldt）关于个人面对风险和不确定性时的理性决策理论——从技术上讲，主观预期效用理论（SEU）——近四十年的研究经验得出了两个确凿的结论。首先，主要由心理学家强调的是，这类模型虽然总体上具有相当的描述性，但在许多实验和现实世界的情况下，无法描述实际行为的某些关键方面。另一个主要由经济学家和决策分析师强调的是，SEU模型的公理在规范上是非常引人注目的，并且该模型已被证明在许多应用情况下是有用的。认识到经典模型的描述性失败和规范性有用性，pi已经探索了实验主义者和应用决策分析师所拥有的共同点，试图发现两者的确切合作，并寻求满足实验关注和应用期望的规定性理论。与SEU一样，这一新的理论——技术上的等级和符号依赖效用（RSDU）理论——是基于相当简单、相当引人注目的基本行为原则，而且与SEU一样，它的结果是加权平均的数值表示，但与SEU不同的是，权重不是概率，它们的值不仅取决于潜在的机会事件，还取决于相关的结果是盈利还是亏损。该理论的基础是根据事件相对于现状是否与收益或损失有关来区别对待事件，并结合共同接收的概念-同时获得两个或更多的东西-这允许明确，简单地表征该理论的基本非理性。本项目研究了几个尚未解决的理论、实验和应用问题：在理论方面，虽然RSDU是一个相当好的选择行为描述性理论，但它需要修改以适应当使用判断确定性等同物而不是选择程序时发生的违反公理的情况。在经验方面，该项目考察了塞勒关于共同接收两件或两件以上事物的效用的规则；RSDU的准理性假设的描述有效性；在选择集方面构建一个参考水平（本地现状）；以及围绕现状汇总收益和损失的替代组合规则。关于实际问题，我们深信现状在决策中起着重要作用，因此非常需要发展明确依赖于现状的说明性理论。此外，该项目将调查符号依赖效用作为规定性理论的局限性和潜在缺陷。＊＊＊

9308915 Von Winterfeldt Almost forty years of experience with theories about rational decision making on the part of individuals confronting risk and uncertainty -- technically, subjective expected utility theories (SEU) -- has led to two firm conclusions. One, stressed primarily by psychologists, is that this class of models, while overall fairly descriptive, fails to describe certain crucial aspects of actual behavior in many experimental and real world situations. The other, stressed primarily by economists and decision analysts, is that the axioms of the SEU model are normatively very compelling and the model has proved useful in numerous applied situations. Recognizing both the descriptive failure and normative usefulness of the classical model, the PIs have explored the common ground held by both the experimentalists and the applied decision analysts, attempted to discover exactly where the two part company, and sought a prescriptive theory that satisfies both experimental concerns and applied expectations. Like SEU this new theory -- technically rank- and sign-dependent utility (RSDU) theory -- is based (axiomatically) on fairly simple, quite compelling, underlying behavioral principles, and also like SEU, it results in a numerical representation as a weighted average, but unlike SEU the weights are not probabilities and their values depend not only on the underlying chance event but on whether the associated outcome is a gain or a loss. Fundamental to the theory is the differential treatment of an event depending on whether it is associated to a gain or a loss relative to a status quo and the incorporation of the concept of joint receipt -- of getting two or more things at the same time -- that allows an explicit, simple characterization of the fundamental non-rationality of the theory. This project examines several theoretical, experimental, and applied issues that remain unresolved: On the theoretical side, while RSDU is a fairly good descript ive theory of choice behavior, it needs modification to accommodate the violations of its axioms which occur when judged certainty equivalents are used rather than choice procedures. On the empirical side, the project examines, among other things, Thaler's rule for the utility of the joint receipt of two or more things; the descriptive validity of the quasi-rational assumptions underlying RSDU; the construction of a reference level (local status quo) in terms of the choice set; and alternative combination rules for the aggregation of gains and losses around the status quo. Regarding applied issues, we are convinced that the status quo plays an important role in decision making and so it is highly desirable to develop prescriptive theories that depend explicitly on it. In addition, the project will investigate the limitations and potential pitfalls of sign dependent utility as a prescriptive theory. ***