Models of Strategic Thinking: A Theoretical, Experimental and Statistical Study

9308914 Stahl本研究的目的是发展战略思维的替代理论，设计实验来检验这些理论，并对实验数据进行统计分析，以回答以下问题：-是否有可能在一个明显同质的实验对象群体中发现不同的战略思维模式，从而拒绝共同战略思维模式的假设？-假设没有实验对象精确地属于理论类型之一，每个分类类型中有多少差异是由于(a)先验的小变化和(b)受试者的计算误差？-如果向受试者提供有关人口过去选择的汇总信息，那么各种类型将如何结合这些信息？本研究的结果将对我们理解个体战略决策和多决策者问题做出重要贡献。＊＊＊

9308914 Stahl The purpose of this proposed research is to develop alternative theories of strategic thinking, design experiments to test the theories, and statistically analyze the experimental data to answer the following questions: - Is it possible to detect different modes of strategic thinking in an apparently homogeneous population of experimental subjects, thereby rejecting the hypothesis of a common mode of strategic thinking? - Assuming that no experimental subject is precisely one of the theoretical types, how much diversity within each categorical type is due to (a) small variations in priors and (b) computational errors by subjects? - If subjects are given aggregate information about the past choices of the population, how will the various types incorporate that information? The results of this research should make important contributions to our understanding of individual strategic decision making and multi-decision-maker problems. ***