Aspects of Productivity Measurement

小行星9311671 人们普遍认为，过去20年生产率增长缓慢是美国面临的最大经济问题。 虽然美国生产率的重要性已被广泛认可，但经济学家在理解这一现象方面却进展甚微。 1982年以后，平均劳动生产率和多要素生产率的增长率下降，经济学家试图用能源价格波动、私人投资不足、基础设施投资不足、政府管制过度、教育分数下降等单一原因来解释，但这一现象并未得到解决。 虽然其中一些因素可能起到部分作用，但即使综合起来，它们似乎也无法解释大部分放缓的原因。 这个正在进行的研究项目采取了全面的方法来研究美国生产力缓慢。 它的重点结合了三个维度-（1）长期历史，（2）跨国，（3）个别行业研究-并试图通过研究这些维度单独和组合，以提高理解程度。 与传统观点相反，在过去的120年里，美国的生产率增长呈现出“一个大浪”的模式，1870 - 1913年缓慢，1913 - 1964年快速（1928- 1950年达到顶峰），1964年后再次缓慢。 该项目试图隔离发生大浪的工业部门，评估其统计准确性，并提出假设来解释它。 该研究的跨国方面详细介绍了其他大国生产率的行业数据，以确定美国之间的最大差异，评估了不同测量方法在解释差异方面的作用。 最后，将对美国建筑业进行详细的行业研究，自20世纪60年代中期以来，该行业的生产率一直呈负增长。 ***

9311671 Gordon There is widespread agreement that slow productivity growth over the past two decades is the greatest economic problem faced by the United States. While the importance of U.S. productivity is widely recognized, economists have as yet made little progress in understanding the phenomenon. The post-1982 slowdown in the growth rates of average labor productivity and multi-factor productivity have withstood the efforts of economists to provide a single-cause explanation, including fluctuations of energy prices, inadequate private investment, inadequate infrastructure investment, excessive government regulation, and declining educational scores. While some of these may make a partial contribution, even when combined they appear to leave most of the slowdown unexplained. This ongoing research project takes a comprehensive approach to the study of slow U.S. productivity. Its focus combines three dimensions - (1) long-run historical, (2) cross-country, and (3) individual industry studies - and attempts by studying these dimensions singly and in combination to develop an improved degree of understanding. Contrary to conventional wisdom, over the past 120 years productivity growth in the U.S. displays the pattern of "one big wave," slow from 1870 to 1913, rapid from 1913 to 1964 (peaking in 1928-50), and slow again after 1964. The project attempts to isolate the industrial sectors where the big wave occurs, assess its statistical accuracy, and develop hypotheses to explain it. The cross-country aspect of the research detailed industry-by- industry data on productivity for other large nations to identify the largest differences between the U.S. It assesses the role of differing measurement methodology in accounting for the differences. Finally, a detailed industry study will be carried out for the U.S. construction sector, which has exhibited negative measured productivity growth since the mid-1960s. ***