Impacts of Climatic Variability and Climatic Change on Wind Energy Resources

9422355罗伯逊风力发电一直被视为最便宜、最丰富的能源形式之一。尽管人们对克服使用风力的技术障碍给予了相当大的关注，但在探索影响其作为能源利用的风的物理特性方面所做的工作要少得多。这些特征中最重要的是风在各种地理和时间尺度上的可变性。因此，风资源的持续开发需要更好地了解气候变化和可能的气候变化对风的年内和年际变化的影响。该项目将通过明确考虑区域风速变化的影响，包括趋势、周期和自相关性的统计分析，探索在开发更准确和更精细的风能资源图方面所固有的方法学问题。它将研究较短时间段内的时间变化，使用从1961年到1990年在北达科他州和南达科他州北部大平原州的一些气候站收集的数据，利用一小时、每日和每月的平均风速来开发风力发电时间序列。在这些时间序列产生之后，它们将被统计地分解成许多分量，包括线性、每日和季节趋势。这些组件将用于探索风电时间序列模型的新形式。这一试点项目将促进改进统计方法，以改进对影响风速变异性的因素的了解。这一新知识应该为更新美国的风能资源地图提供基础，并将允许对美国不同地区开发风能作为能源的潜力进行精细评估。

9422355 ROBESON Wind-generated electricity has been viewed as one of the least expensive and most abundant forms of energy. Although considerable attention has been given to overcoming technological impediments to its use, far less work has been undertaken to explore the physical characteristics of wind that affect its utility as an energy resource. Foremost among those characteristics is the variability of wind over a variety of geographic and temporal scales. The continued development of wind resources therefore requires better understanding of the influence of climatic variability and possible climatic change on the intra-annual and inter-annual variability of wind. This project will explore methodological issues inherent in the development of more accurate and more finely refined wind resource maps by explicitly considering the effects of regional wind variability, including statistical analyses of trends, periodicities, and autocorrelation. It will examine temporal variations over shorter time periods, using data gathered from 1961 through 1990 at a number of climatic stations in the northern Great Plains states of North Dakota and South Dakota to develop time series of wind power using one-hour, daily, and monthly average wind speeds. Following generation of those time series, they will be statistically decomposed into a number of components, including linear, daily, and seasonal trends. These components will be used to explore new forms of time-series models for wind power. This pilot project will facilitate refinement of statistical approaches that can be used to improve knowledge about factors that affect wind variability. This new knowledge should provide the basis for updating maps of wind resources in the U.S., and it will permit refined assessments of the potential for developing wind as an energy resource in different parts of the nation.