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Understanding within- and between-population variation in responses to climate variability and extreme climatic events

了解人口内部和人口之间对气候变化和极端气候事件的反应的变化

基本信息

批准号：
NE/X000184/1
负责人：
Ben Sheldon
金额：
$ 82.74万
依托单位：
University of Oxford
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2022
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2022 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FX000184%2F1
关键词：
Understanding within between population variation

项目摘要

Human-driven climate change is leading to increases in average temperature that are having profound impacts on the natural world, including breakdowns in species interactions, shifts in species ranges, and population collapse and species extinctions. Alongside overall warming, climate change is expected to lead to changes in climate variability and in the frequency, duration, and severity of extreme climatic events, such as heat waves. Increased climate variability and extreme events may lead to more severe effects on organisms than more gradual climate warming because they lead to larger relative changes in climatic variables, such as temperature, over short timescales. In doing so, they are more likely to expose organisms to conditions that affect their performance. Consequently, we need to understand how climate variability and extreme climatic events affect the survival and reproduction of organisms, the degree to which evolutionary change provides a means for species to adapt to continued change, and whether there are environmental factors that act to exacerbate or ameliorate the effects of increased climate variability or extreme climatic events. Progress to understand the impacts of climate variability and extreme climatic events in the wild has been limited largely by the difficulty of collecting appropriate data. This is because such studies require climatic data at a temporal and spatial resolution relevant to wild populations, information on the survival and reproduction of large numbers of wild individuals, measures of individual phenotypes in wild systems, and detailed information on environmental characteristics, such as resource availability or habitat quality. We propose to use an ecological system that has been extensively used to study the effects of changing average climate - passerine birds exploiting caterpillars as a food source in deciduous woodlands - to examine how variation in climate variability and extreme climatic events generate variation in survival and reproduction. First, we will use data from one of the longest running studies of a wild animal - the study of great tits (Parus major) in Wytham Woods, near Oxford for which data exist for almost 60 years under standardised conditions. We will use these data to explore the links between climate at a variety of spatial scales, measures of habitat variation, and how these are linked to individual reproductive data and to individual fitness. We will then expand on this single-population study by using datasets from 27 studies of great tits across Europe, to quantify continent-wide patterns in the relationship between climate variability/extremes an survival and reproduction of these birds, and explore differences between populations and between species in these relationships. Using the approach outlined above, our work will provide novel insights into: (1) the immediate consequences of variation in climate variability and extreme climatic events on survival and reproduction, and thus potentially on population health; (2) the influence of these climatic changes on natural selection at both the local and European scale; and (3) the role of environmental heterogeneity in modifying the effects of climate variability/extreme climatic events. These insights can then be used to forecast how future changes in climate variability/extreme climatic events may influence populations and species, better predict the potential for evolution to help species cope with continued human-driven climate change, and pinpoint ways that conservation can use variation in the environment, between individuals, and between populations, to minimise the effects of continued climate change on biodiversity.

人类驱动的气候变化正在导致平均气温上升，对自然界产生深远影响，包括物种相互作用的中断，物种范围的变化，以及人口崩溃和物种灭绝。除了整体变暖，气候变化预计将导致气候变异性以及热浪等极端气候事件的频率、持续时间和严重程度的变化。气候多变性和极端事件的增加可能比气候逐渐变暖对生物体造成更严重的影响，因为它们在短时间内导致温度等气候变量的较大相对变化。在这样做时，它们更有可能使生物体暴露在影响其性能的条件下。因此，我们需要了解气候变异性和极端气候事件如何影响生物体的生存和繁殖，进化变化在多大程度上为物种提供了适应持续变化的手段，以及是否存在加剧或减轻气候变异性增加或极端气候事件影响的环境因素。由于难以收集适当的数据，在了解气候变异性和极端气候事件在野外的影响方面取得的进展很大程度上受到限制。这是因为这类研究需要与野生种群有关的具有时间和空间分辨率的气候数据、关于大量野生个体生存和繁殖的信息、野生系统中个体表型的测量以及关于环境特征的详细信息，如资源可用性或生境质量。我们建议使用一个生态系统，已被广泛用于研究平均气候变化的影响-雀形目鸟类利用毛虫作为食物来源，在落叶林地-研究如何在气候变化和极端气候事件的变化产生的生存和繁殖的变化。首先，我们将使用对野生动物进行的最长时间的研究之一的数据-在牛津附近的Wytham Woods的大山雀（Parus major）的研究，其数据在标准化条件下存在近60年。我们将利用这些数据来探索气候在各种空间尺度，栖息地变化的措施，以及如何将这些与个人生殖数据和个人健身之间的联系。然后，我们将通过使用来自欧洲27项大山雀研究的数据集来扩展这一单一种群研究，以量化气候变化/极端情况与这些鸟类的生存和繁殖之间关系的全大陆模式，并探索这些关系中种群之间和物种之间的差异。使用上述方法，我们的工作将提供新的见解：（1）气候变率和极端气候事件的变化对生存和繁殖的直接后果，从而对人口健康的潜在影响;（2）这些气候变化对自然选择的影响，在当地和欧洲的规模;（3）环境异质性在改变气候变率/极端气候事件影响中的作用。这些见解可以用来预测未来气候变化/极端气候事件的变化如何影响种群和物种，更好地预测进化的潜力，以帮助物种科普持续的人类驱动的气候变化，并确定保护可以利用环境中的变化的方式，个体之间，种群之间，以尽量减少持续气候变化对生物多样性的影响。