Collaborative Research: P2C2: Extreme floods on the lower Mississippi River in the context of late Holocene climatic variability

合作研究：P2C2：全新世晚期气候变化背景下密西西比河下游的极端洪水

• 批准号: 1803056
• 负责人: Jeffrey Donnelly
• 金额: $ 24.39万
• 依托单位: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-06-01 至 2021-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1803056&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; P2C2; Extreme; floods

The Mississippi River plays a fundamental role in the economy of the United States, and flooding along its course is costly in both economic and social terms. Historic flooding of the lower Mississippi in 2011 caused over $3 billion in agricultural losses and damage to infrastructure, with additional losses to flooding occurring again in 2016 and 2018. Seasonal and longer-term predictions of flooding along the Mississippi and its major tributaries remain a major challenge because the effects of climate variability, greenhouse forcing, and human modifications of the river are difficult to disentangle using short records from gauging stations that span less than 150 years. This project will develop records describing the timing and magnitude of flooding across the Mississippi River basin over the last millennium, and use these records to understand the influence of climate variability on flood activity. This work will improve predictions of flooding along the Mississippi River, a hazard that affects millions of people. The findings will be useful for planned and ongoing efforts to slow coastal land loss in the Mississippi River delta. The project will engage students at three institutions in research, and its findings will be disseminated to the public through an exhibit at the Mississippi River Museum and Aquarium. The goal of this project is to reconstruct the frequency and magnitude of overbank floods along the lower Mississippi River and its major tributaries over the last millennium using the sedimentary archives preserved in oxbow lakes. Our ability to create this novel hydrological record is due to recent developments in paleoflood hydrology that demonstrate the unique ability of floodplain lake sediments to record individual flood events and their associated magnitude. Once developed, our reconstructions will be used to characterize decadal- to centennial-scale variability of flood activity, to compare with simulated discharge extremes in climate model ensembles, and to identify the regional and hemispheric circulation patterns associated with increased likelihoods of extreme floods on the lower Mississippi River and its major tributaries.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

密西西比河在美国的经济中起着基本作用，在经济和社会方面泛滥成灾。 2011年，密西西比州较低的历史性洪水造成了超过30亿美元的农业损失和对基础设施的损失，造成洪水的额外损失，2016年和2018年再次发生洪水。季节性和长期的预测密西西比州沿洪水的洪水及其主要支流及其主要的支流仍然是一种主要的挑战，因为它是一种迫使人体变化的影响，因为河流的影响是河流变化的效果，河流的变化是河流的变化。不到150年。该项目将开发记录，描述上千年在密西西比河盆地泛滥的时机和幅度，并使用这些记录来了解气候变化对洪水活动的影响。这项工作将改善密西西比河沿线洪水的预测，这是一种影响数百万人的危险。这些发现对于计划和持续的努力来减缓密西西比河三角洲的沿海土地损失很有用。该项目将吸引三个机构的学生参与研究，其发现将通过密西西比河博物馆和水族馆的展览将其传播给公众。该项目的目的是使用保存在Oxbow Lakes中的沉积物档案，重建密西西比河下河及其主要支流的频率和幅度。我们创建这种新型水文记录的能力是由于古流经水文学的最新发展，证明了洪泛区沉积物记录单个洪水事件及其相关幅度的独特能力。一旦开发，我们的重建将用于表征洪水活动的十年至百年级变化，与气候模型中的模拟极端相比，并确定与较低的密西西比河及其主要的传教士的极端洪水相关的区域和半球循环模式。基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响审查标准。