Hurricane Dynamics

舒伯特博士将就热带气旋展开四个方面的调查。首先，人们对飓风动力学的许多方面知之甚少，包括螺旋带、多边形眼壁以及飓风所采取的振荡或环状路径。我们将尝试用简单的理论模型和数值模拟来发展对这些现象的统一的动力学理解。第二个耐人寻味的问题涉及孪生热带气旋现象。这些成对的风暴只发生在西太平洋和印度洋，并在厄尔尼诺的动态中发挥作用。这些系统将在一系列建模研究中进行研究。主要从卫星观测中观察到的另一个有趣的现象是热带辐合区云型的起伏发展，随后形成一个或多个热带气旋，这取决于曲率的程度。舒伯特博士将在一系列模拟研究中研究ITCZ内的气旋形成过程。在所有的模型研究中，他打算研究湿物理的作用。最后，首席研究人员最近发展了一种用于模式的新的基于涡度的坐标系，这为建立涡旋的三维非线性平衡理论打开了可能性。舒伯特博士也将探索这种可能性。所有四个主题都是重要的研究问题，对于增进对热带气旋的形成和行为的了解至关重要。***

Dr. Schubert will pursue four areas of inquiry regarding tropical cyclones. First, many aspects of hurricane dynamics are poorly understood, including spiral bands, polygonal eyewalls, and the oscillatory or looping paths hurricanes take. An attempt will be made to develop a unified dynamical understanding of these phenomena using simple theoretical models and numerical simulation. A second intriguing problem involves the phenomenon of twin tropical cyclones. These paired storms occur exclusively in the west Pacific and Indian Oceans and play a role in the dynamics of El Nino. These systems will be investigated in a series of modeling studies. Another interesting phenomenon which has been observed primarily from satellite observations is the development of undulations in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) cloud patterns and the subsequent formation of one or more tropical cyclones, depending on the degree of curvature. Dr. Schubert will study the cyclone formation processes within the ITCZ in a series of modeling studies. In all of the modeling studies, he intends to investigate the role of moist physics. Finally, the recent development by the principal investigator of a new coordinate system based on vorticity for use in models opens the possibility of formulating a three dimensional nonlinear balanced theory for vortices. Dr. Schubert will also pursue this possibility. All four topics represent important research problems that are critical to improving understanding of the formation and behavior of tropical cyclones. ***