CAREER: Consideration of Alternative Hypotheses in Judgment Under Uncertainty

在不确定情况下的判断中考虑备选假设的考虑如果有两个互斥且详尽的假设，则考虑患者患有疾病A或她患有疾病B的情况。给出疾病A的一些证据(例如，测试结果)，医生可能会考虑或被问到，知道这个结果使他或她有多大信心认为疾病A是问题所在。思考如何回答这个问题的一种方法是，将证据对疾病A的反应与对疾病B的反应进行比较。另一种方法是考虑证据对A的反应与对A的反应(忽略B或只考虑证据对B的反应与对B的反应)。相互竞争的替代假设在心理上如何表现(作为独立的还是独立的)，显然会影响对信心的评估。这份职业提案涉及进行多项实验，以进一步提炼和证实假设检验的构建方式影响评估的信心这一观点，将这一假设检验理论的应用扩展到解释判断中的其他明显异常情况，将假设检验模型扩展到两种以上的选择。

Consideration of Alternative Hypotheses in Judgments Under Uncertainty Consider a situation where a patient has illness A or she has illness B f there are two mutually exclusive and exhaustive hypotheses. Given some evidence for illness A (e.g., a test result) a physician might then consider, or be asked, how confident knowing this result makes him or her that illness A is the problem. One way to think about how to respond to this question is to compare how the evidence reflects on illness A in comparison with illness B. An alternative is to consider how the evidence reflects on A versus against A (ignoring B or considering only how the evidence reflects on B versus not B). How competing alternative hypotheses are represented mentally (as dependent or independent) will clearly influence evaluations of confidence. This CAREER proposal, involves conducting a number of experiments to: Further refine and substantiate the idea that the way hypothesis testing is framed influences evaluated confidence Extend the application of this theory of hypothesis testing to explain other apparent anomalies in judgment Extend the model of hypothesis testing to more than two alternatives.