Do Transportation Plans Affect Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Urban Growth?

霍普金斯，刘易斯U伊利诺伊州，厄巴纳-香槟 这项建议是为了研究开发商对政府交通计划中披露的信息做出反应的方式。 将开发一个模型，用于检查俄勒冈州大都会波特兰的轻轨系统计划。 用于评估应对措施的措施包括土地销售、土地价值、建筑许可证和土地改良方面的空间和时间变化。 开发了一个地块级的、有日期戳的数据库，其中记录了土地所有者决定和土地价值随时间的变化。 在分析政府计划的影响时，随着时间的推移，一个动画的GIS功能被调用，以探索计划信息、监管或基础设施行动以及私人发展决定之间的空间和时间滞后。 本研究基于一个理论模型，并侧重于开发商和地方政府的决策之间的时间相互关系，作为一个动态的城市发展的Stackleberg模型。 拟议的工作还包括丰富多样的实证分析选项。 本研究将加深对政府行为对开发商行为影响的理解，也将深化城市发展的理论文献。

Hopkins, Lewis U of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign This proposal is for research which examines the ways in which developers respond to information revealed through government plans specifically for transportation. A model will be developed which examines the plans for a light rail system in Metropolitan Portland, Oregon. Measures used to evaluate responses include spatial and temporal changes in land sales, land values, building permits, and land improvements. A parcel level, date stamped data base is developed in which transactions on landowner decisions and land values over time are recorded. In the analysis of the impact of government plans, an animated GIS capability is invoked over time to explore spatial and temporal lags among plan information, regulatory or infrastructure actions, and private development decisions. The research is grounded in a theoretical model and focuses upon the temporal interrelationship between the decisions of developers and local governments as a dynamic Stackleberg model of urban development. The proposed work also includes a rich variety of empirical analysis options. The research will extend understanding of the impact of government actions upon developers' behavior and will also deepen the theoretical literature on urban development.