Japan JSPS Program: Optimal Initial Conditions for Growth in an Intermediate Ocean-Atmosphere Model of the Pacific Which Generates Both the Annual Cycle and ENSO

该奖项为日本札幌北海道大学环境地球科学研究生院Christopher J. Thompson博士提供为期24个月的日本科学促进会（JSPS）博士后奖学金。汤普森博士将与海洋与大气科学系副教授谢尚平博士合作，开展一个名为“产生年循环和ENSO的太平洋海洋-大气中间模式生长的最佳初始条件”的研究项目。本研究的重点是建立和分析一个中等大小的赤道太平洋模型，该模型将重现厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）大气模式的年周期和年际周期。ENSO是一种不规则的，3到7年的海表温度（SST）循环，其中最著名的方面是南美洲海岸的周期性和异常变暖，这种模式在科学界被称为厄尔尼诺。ENSO还可以预测其他重要的季节性天气模式，一个具体的例子是亚洲季风，它继续导致南亚和东亚的洪水或干旱。通过以前的研究，已经对ENSO达到了最低程度的可预测性，但这项研究仅限于开发重现ENSO周期或年周期的模式。没有一个现有的模型能够成功地再现这两种模式，或者预测它们的综合效应。因此，拟议研究的目的是建立这个复杂的模型，并对该模型应用最优初始条件分析，以确定那些可能导致大气中大量瞬态增长的结构。* * *

Thompson 9703995 This award supports a 24 month Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Postdoctoral Fellowship for Dr. Christopher J. Thompson at the Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan. Dr. Thompson will work with Dr. Shang-Ping Xie, Associate Professor in the Division of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, on a research project entitled, "Optimal Initial Conditions for Growth in an Intermediate Ocean-Atmosphere Model of the Pacific that Generates the Annual Cycle and ENSO." This proposed research emphasizes the construction and analysis of an intermediate- sized model of the Equatorial Pacific that will reproduce both the annual cycle and the inter-annual cycle of the atmospheric pattern known as El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is an irregular, three to seven year sea surface temperature (SST) cycle, the most well known aspect of which is the periodic and anomalous warming of the South America coast, a pattern referred to in the scientific community as El Nino. ENSO also acts as a predictor for other important seasonal weather patterns, one specific example being the Asian Monsoon, which continues to cause either floods or droughts in South and East Asia. A minimal degree of predictability for ENSO has been achieved through previous research, but this research has been confined to the development of models that reproduce either the ENSO cycle or the annual cycle. No existing model has successfully reproduced both patterns or predicted their combined effects. As such, the purpose of the proposed research is to develop this complex model and apply optimal initial condition analysis to that model in order to identify those structures which may lead to large transient growth in the atmosphere. ***