Racial Polarization and Realignment in the New South

在这项研究中，县，州和联邦选举1980年和1996年之间的选区数据相匹配的选区的种族组成的数据，以分析种族极化和重新排列在南方。 种族极化被定义为黑人和白人（或拉丁美洲人）对民主党的支持差异。 使用生态推理程序（EI），这项研究估计，与置信区间，支持民主党和共和党的黑人，白人和拉丁美洲人在南方的每一个县，几乎所有的县，州和联邦选举。 在质疑或支持建立少数民族占多数的地区的案件中，诉讼人和法官可能会严重依赖这些估计。 与过去主要关注两极分化是否阻止少数族裔官员当选的研究不同，这次调查衡量了民主党支持率的种族差距。 与法院和媒体经常表达的传统智慧相反，首席研究员假设，随着黑人继续几乎一致地投票给民主党人，越来越多的白人投票给共和党人，种族两极分化已经加剧。 对种族极化的估计使人们有可能测试为什么种族极化在不同的地点，时间和办公室之间存在差异的竞争理论。 这项研究比较了白色反弹理论与其他非种族理论的力量。 白色反弹理论指出，居住在黑人比例高的地区的白人通常比黑人很少的地区的白人投票更保守，但有人推测黑人和白人之间的经济差距解释了种族两极分化。 这项调查测试了几种关于种族重新划分和重新调整之间关系的理论。 虽然有几项研究在联邦一级审查了种族重划的党派影响，但这项研究是第一次探讨种族重划是否导致共和党州立法或县理事会的收益。 这项调查产生的数据集将对其他有兴趣探索这一重要课题的学者具有巨大价值。

In this study precinct data for county, state, and federal elections between 1980 and 1996 are matched with data on the racial composition of precincts in order to analyze racial polarization and realignment in the south. Racial polarization is defined as the difference in support for the Democrats among blacks and whites (or Latinos where appropriate). Using an ecological inference program (EI) this study estimates, with confidence intervals, support for Democrats and Republicans among blacks, whites, and Latinos in every county in the south for virtually all county, state, and federal elections. Litigants and judges in cases challenging or supporting the creation of majority-minority districts are likely to rely heavily on these estimates. Unlike past studies which have focused primarily on whether polarization prevents the election of minority officials, this investigation gauges the size of the racial gap in support for the Democrats. Contrary to the conventional wisdom often expressed by the courts and the media, the principal investigator hypothesizes that racial polarization has increased as blacks continue to vote nearly unanimously for Democrats and greater numbers of whites cast ballots for Republicans. The estimates of racial polarization make it possible to test competing theories for why racial polarization varies across location, time, and office. The study compares the strength of the white backlash theory with other nonracial theories. The white backlash theory states that whites who live in areas with a high percentage of blacks usually vote more conservatively than whites in areas with few blacks, but some speculate that the economic gap between blacks and whites explains racial polarization. The investigation tests several theories about the nexus between racial redistricting and realignment. While several studies examine the partisan impact of racial redistricting at the federal level, this study is the first to explore whether racial redistricting resulted in Republican state legislative or county council gains. The data set produced by this investigation will be of immense value to other scholars interested in exploring this important topic.