MMIA: Quantity and Quality in the Wheat Agroecosystem: Assessment of Climate Change in the Great Plains

摘要 9711628韦斯等人 这一关于综合评估方法和模式的项目结合了加强科学内容。 前一类将解决建模生态系统功能，价值和适应性行为，而后一类将解决整个农业经济的经济反馈机制。 质量和数量是小麦农业生态系统的重要组成部分。 仅仅从数量上评价未来硬冬小麦生态系统是不够的，还必须考虑质量。 因此，已经确定了以下目标：定量评估大平原硬冬小麦数量和质量对气候变化情景的响应;定量确定气候变化情景对大平原未来硬冬小麦生态系统的经济影响。 一个最终使用的质量子模型的基础上氮的转运到谷物将被修改，包括蛋白质质量，醇溶蛋白和谷蛋白浓度和面团混合特性。 该子模型的验证将基于详细的现场实验现有数据集，以及蛋白质含量和面团混合特性的实验室分析。 这个子模型将被纳入现有的小麦生长，发育和产量模型，将在大平原选定的位置从现有的数据集进行验证。 利用生成的代表不同气候变化情景的天气数据集，将评估不同小麦品种的数量和质量反应。 这些产出将用作经济分析的输入。 综合评估预测的气候变化对冬小麦生态系统的经济影响，需要包括该地区小麦质量和数量的影响。 该分析使用平衡强加的反馈机制来分析预测的气候变化如何影响大平原以及其他地区的小麦和其他农业产出和投入部门。 整体方法模拟了一个经济体在经济调整过程中经常发生的资源和产出替代现象。

ABSTRACT 9711628 Weiss, et al This project on methods and models for integrated assessment combines enhancement of scientific components. The former category will address modeling ecosystem function, value, and adaptive behavior while the latter category will address economic feedback mechanisms throughout the agricultural economy. Quality as well as quantity are major components of the wheat agroecosystem. Evaluating future hard winter wheat ecosystems in terms of quantity alone is not adequate, quality must also be considered. Thus, the following objectives have been identified: To quantitatively evaluate hard winter wheat quantity and quality responses to climate change scenarios in the Great Plains; to quantitatively determine the economic impact of climate change scenarios on future hard winter wheat ecosystems in the Great Plains. An end-use quality submodel based on the translocation of nitrogen to the grain will be modified to include protein quality, in terms of gliadin and glutenin concentrations and dough mixing properties. Validation of this submodel will be based on detailed field experiments existing data sets, and laboratory analyses of protein content and dough mixing properties. This submodel will be incorporated into an existing wheat growth, development, and yield model which will be validated from existing data sets at selected locations in the Great Plains. Using generated weather data sets representative of different climate change scenarios, quantity and quality reponses of different wheat cultivars will be evaluated. These outputs will be used as inputs to the economics analysis. An integrated assessment of the economic impact from projected climate change on winter wheat ecosystems requires the inclusion of both wheat quality and quantity impacts in the region. The analysis uses equilibria-imposed feedback mechanisms to analyze how projected climate changes impact wheat and other agricultural output and input sectors in the Great Plains as well as other regions. The overall approach models the resource and output substitution phenomena which regularly operate in the economic adjustment process in an economy.