Advanced Integrated Science Modeling Capability for Integrated Assessment Studies

9711624 Wuebbles本研究的目的是为自然科学模块开发先进的建模能力，以更好地满足未来综合评估研究的需求。该模型将被设计成更好地表示空间变化，并改进与评价生物地球化学循环有关的过程的处理，这对确定区域尺度上的大气成分和由此产生的气候影响很重要。通过将对区域影响的过程级理解扩展到综合评估（IA）模型中，本文提出的工作将大大提高对气候变化影响的理解，并扩展可在综合评估框架中解决的问题范围。对于特定的应用，这项工作包括与最先进的能源/经济模型的适当连接。该模型将应用于一组选定的研究，以解决与气候变化有关的政策问题；特别是农业、林业和土地利用对未来温室气体排放的作用及其对未来气候的影响。尽管该模型开发的主要重点将继续放在自然科学上，但通过与正在进行的最先进的经济、生态系统和社会科学过程建模的密切互动，将实现一个更强大的全面综合评估工具。这将是这个项目的一个重要方面，它将有一个精心设计的建模工具，可以用各种方式来评估全球变化和社会科学之间的关系。特别是，该建模工具将允许在综合的全球和区域框架中探索全球变化决策和政策科学的人类维度，同时为与全球变化相关的紧迫政策问题提供快速有效的第一近似答案。

9711624 Wuebbles The objective of this research is to develop advanced modeling capabilities for the natural science modules to better meet the needs of future integrated assessment studies. The model will be designed to better represent spatial variations and to improve the treatment of processes relevant towards evaluating the biogeochemical cycles important to determining atmospheric composition and resulting climatic effects at the regional scale. By extending the process level understanding of regional impacts into the Integrated Assessment (IA) model, the work proposed here will substantially improve the understanding of climate change impacts and extend the range of issues, which can be addressed in an IA framework. For specific applications, this effort includes the appropriate connections with a state-of-the-art energy/economics model. The model will be applied to a selected set of studies to address policy related questions on climate change; in particular the role of agriculture, forestry, and land-use for future greenhouse gas emissions and their implications on future climate. Although the primary focus of this model development will continue to be on the natural sciences, a much more powerful tool for fully integrated assessment will be achieved through a close interaction with the ongoing state-of-the-art modeling of economic, ecosystem, and social science processes. It will be an important aspect of this project that it will have a well designed modeling tool that can be used in a variety of ways for assessing the relationships between global change and the social sciences. In particular, this modeling tool will allow the exploration of human dimension of global change decision making and policy science in an integrated global and regional framework, while providing fast and efficient first approximation answers to pressing policy questions related to global change.