Space Weather: Predicting Geomagnetic Storms from the Magnetic Orientations of Disappearing Filaments and X-Ray Arcades

该计划将确定如何以及地磁暴可以预测从磁极性和方向的消失丝（DF）和软X射线弧在太阳上。 PI将具体说明这些油田的拓扑结构是否通常在喷发时保留。 这一办法将涉及：（1）一个基本上与耀斑无关的大的DF数据库，已经测量了它的边界极性和预先存在的暗条的几何取向，（2）对Yohkoh观测到的一个大尺度日冕X射线弧数据集的这些性质的测定，（三）太阳的位置的灯丝和拱廊到GSM坐标，所以几何耦合效应影响的发生率和严重性，一种叠加历元分析技术，用于将不同的DF和Arcade数据集与风暴指数和风暴数据集进行比较，以确定哪些太阳参数是最具地球效应的。 该项目的成果将增进对最具地球效应的太阳质量喷出物特征的了解，从而加强对中大型风暴的预测，这是预测空间天气的关键。

This program will determine how well geomagnetic storms can be predicted from magnetic polarities and orientation of disappearing filaments (DF) and soft x-ray arcades on the Sun. The PI will specifically address whether the topology of these fields is usually preserved upon eruption. The approach will involve: (1) a large data base of DFs, essentially independent of flares, for which the bounding polarities and geometrical orientations of preexisting filaments have been measured, (2) a determination of these properties for a data set of large-scale coronal x-ray arcades observed by Yohkoh, (3) the solar locations of the filaments and arcades into GSM coordinates so geometrical coupling effects influencing the occurrence rate and severity of storms can be accounted for, and (4) a superposed epoch analysis technique to compare different sets of the DF and arcade data with storm indices and a storm data set to determine which solar parameters are most geoeffective. The project results will improve understanding of solar mass ejecta characteristics that are most geoeffective, thereby enhancing the prediction of moderate to large storms, key to forecasting space weather.