A Low-Dimensional Dynamical Model for the Solar Wind Driven Geotail-Ionosphere System

将开展研究，评估通过区域1电流耦合到电离层的夜间磁层基本能量分量的六维状态空间模型。该模型为经验预测技术提供了一种基于物理的替代方法。对这个基于物理的模型的评估包括：(1)将模型结果与基于数据的预测过滤器进行关键比较，(2)将模型与粒子模拟相耦合，将结果与Bargatze事件数据集中的地磁指数进行比较，并将模型的非线性动力学响应与根据磁层变量的状态空间分析得出的磁层状态空间分析得出的磁层非线性动力学响应进行比较。

Research would be undertaken to evaluate a six-dimensional state space model for the basic energy components of the night-side magnetosphere coupled to the ionosphere by region 1 currents. This model provides a physics based alternative to empirical forecasting techniques. The evaluation of this physics based model with involve (1) a critical comparison of the model results to data- based prediction filters, (2) couple the model to particle simulations, comparing the results to geomagnetic indices within the Bargatze event data set, and compare the model's nonlinear dynamical response to that of the magnetosphere as deduced from state space analysis of magnetosphere as deduced from state space analysis of magnetospheric variables.