Substitution and Reallocation Responses to Energy Price Changes

这个项目涉及一种结构性的方法来研究植物水平的替代和重新分配对能源价格变化的反应。工厂进入和退出在确定总替代和要素需求对能源价格变化的反应中的作用被考察。对与能源强度和能源替代相关的厂级技术参数进行了估算。此外，还描述了这些参数在制造工厂群体中的联合分布，跟踪了其随时间的演变，阐明了对总结果的影响，并量化了阻碍要素流动的政府政策的效率成本。分析的主要焦点是1972年至1993年美国制造业工厂的丰富年度数据来源。1.厂级技术参数(能源强度和能源替代弹性)如何与可观察到的工厂和行业特征相关？2.能源强度在多大程度上体现在资本存量中？3.与能源相关的技术参数的厂级分布是如何随时间演变的？这一分布的巨大变化是由1973年74年、1979年80年和1985年86年的石油价格冲击引发的吗？4.植物进入和退出、植物要素重新分配、在工厂替代反应内和行业产出转移之间，对能源价格冲击的总替代反应和要素需求反应？5.对油价涨跌的不对称总体反应是否反映了与能源相关的技术参数在工厂层面分布随时间的变化？6.要素重新分配和技术调整中的摩擦减缓了对能源价格变化的经济反应，其代价有多大？7.阻碍工厂退出的政府政策和工厂对能源价格变化的重新分配反应之间的效率成本有多大？8.自1972年以来，能源价格的空间和行业差异是如何演变的？阻碍能源价格空间套利的政府政策的效率成本有多大？

This project involves a structural approach to the study of plant level substitution and reallocation responses to energy price changes. The role of plant entry and exit is examined in the determination of aggregate substitution and factor demand responses to energy price changes. Plant level technology parameters related to energy intensity and energy substitution are estimated. Further, the joint distribution of these parameters in the population of manufacturing plants is characterized, its evolution over time tracked, the consequences for aggregate outcomes spelled out, and the efficiency costs of government policies that impede factor mobility quantified. The main focus of the analysis is a rich source of annual data on U.S. manufacturing plants from 1972 to 1993. The following sorts of questions are addressed: 1. How are plant level technology parameters (energy intensity and energy substitution elasticities) related to observable plant and industry characteristics? 2. To what extent is energy intensity embodied in the capital stock? 3. How has the plant level distribution of energy related technology parameters evolved over time? Were large changes in this distribution triggered by the oil price shocks of 1973 74, 1979 80 and 1985 86? 4. What contribution do plant entry and exit, between plant factor reallocation, within plant substitution responses and between industry output shifts make to the aggregate substitution and factor demand responses to energy price shocks? 5. Does the asymmetric aggregate response to oil price ups and downs reflect changes over time in the plant level distribution of energy related technology parameters? 6. How costly are the frictions in factor reallocation and technology adjustment that slow the economic response to energy price changes? 7. How large are the efficiency costs of government policies that impede plant exit and between plant reallocation responses to energy price changes? 8. How have spatial and industry differences in energy prices evolved since 1972? 9. How large were the efficiency costs of government policies that hampered the spatial arbitrage of energy prices?