Application of Dynamical Systems to Earthquake Prediction

9804859图尔科特这项研究是一个项目的继续，其目标是联合收割机的数学专业知识，地震预测理论和数学地球物理学，俄罗斯科学院，莫斯科，在这个国家的复杂性不断发展的物理学研究。 莫斯科小组在地震活动性统计研究方面处于世界领先地位。 PI是发现复杂物理系统新方法的领导者;特别是应用于区域地震活动的自组织临界性。 到目前为止的一些成果包括：1）系统地测试了该小组以前开发的中期地震预测算法，并取得了显著的成功; 2）开发了一个地震机制-地震活动性模型，该模型具有可用地震数据测试的有用特性; 3）开发了一个统一的地震危险性方法模型。 未来的工作将继续地震-地震动力学模拟，扩展中期地震预测算法，并在中期预测警报内开发新的短期预测算法。 其目标是提高我们对地震力学的理解，改善地震危险性评估，并推进地震预测技术。 这项研究是国家地震减灾计划的一个组成部分。

9804859TurcotteThis research is a continuation of a project whose goal is to combine the mathematical expertise available at the International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, with the evolving physics research in this country on complexity. The Moscow group is a world leader in statistical studies of seismicity. The PI is a leader in the discovery of new approaches to complex physical systems; especially self-organized criticality as applied to regional seismicity. Some of the results thus far include 1) a systematic test of the intermediate-term earthquake prediction algorithms previously developed by the group with notable successes, 2) development of an earthquake mechanism-seismicity model that exhibits useful properties that can be tested with seismic data, and 3) development of a uniform seismic hazard methodology model. Future work will continue the seismicity-earthquake dynamics modeling, extend the intermediate-term earthquake prediction algorithms, and develop new short-term prediction algorithms within the intermediate-term prediction alarms. The goals are to advance our understanding of earthquake mechanics, improve earthquake hazard assessment, and advance earthquake prediction techniques. This research is a component of the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program.