POWRE: Simultaneity in the Timing of Young Women's Non-Martial Homeleaving, Non-Maritial Fertility, and Marriage

该项目旨在通过李·利拉德博士创新的同时危害模型的培训和应用，为研究者提供研究和教育方面的提升。利拉德模型允许联合研究多个危险过程，并明确估计过程之间的两种形式的潜在依赖关系：(1)未观察到的异质性成分之间的相关性；(2)一个过程的过去历史或实际危害对另一个过程危害的直接影响。利拉德模型的创新之处在于其灵活的分段线性规范，适用于可能影响风险率的“多个时钟”（例如，婚姻持续时间、个人年龄、日历时间）。一个实质性的申请将联合模拟三个过程（非婚离家、非婚生育和结婚），并解决几个关于在婚姻之外离开父母家的过程及其与其他两个过程的关系的研究问题。这些数据包括近4000名非裔美国人和白人妇女，她们出生于1938年至1967年之间，参加了全国家庭和家庭调查。该项目填补了关于一般青年妇女特别是年轻母亲离家过程研究中的重大空白，并有可能为政策制定者提供有关福利政策的信息。本研究将严格考虑发展过程，这虽然是寿命和生命过程理论的关键因素，但相对而言却被实证研究所忽视。此外，该研究通过从静态模型转向动态（事件历史）模型，并通过考虑离家路线之间的内生性，增加了关于离家过程的文献。因此，这项工作可以告知研究界关于最近案例中婚姻和非婚姻离家路线变化模式的其他解释。最后，这项研究将大大扩展研究者自己和其他过去关于年轻母亲何时住在家里的研究。通过考虑生育时间和发生的内生性，该模型解释了没有孩子的妇女和早生孩子和晚生孩子的妇女之间的选择性区别。因此，这些群体之间可以进行公平的比较。此外，通过同时考虑婚姻内和婚姻外的离家行为，该研究将首次将关于AFDC对离开父母家的影响的小文献和关于AFDC对婚姻影响的大文献结合起来。这种教育和研究加强的成果将是实质性的。研究者的研究涉及应用发展科学和人口科学，对内生事件过程的联合分析将有助于她在职业生涯中在这些领域的前沿产生知识。她致力于促进将特定学科的方法进步应用于另一学科或主题领域的方法困境。通过发表这些方法的应用，以及教学作品，她希望促进这些最先进方法的交叉利用。

This project is designed to provide research and educational enhancement for the investigator through training in and utilization of Dr. Lee Lillard's innovative simultaneous hazards model. The Lillard model allows multiple hazard processes to be jointly studied with two forms of potential dependencies among processes explicitly estimated: (1) correlations among unobserved heterogeneity components and (2) direct effects of the past history or actual hazard of one process on the hazard of another process. The Lillard model is also innovative in its flexible piecewise linear specification for `multiple clocks` that may affect the hazard rate (e.g., duration of marriage, individual's age, calendar time). A substantive application will jointly model three processes (non-marital homeleaving, non-marital fertility, and marriage) and address several research questions regarding the process of leaving the parental home outside of marriage and its relationship to the two other processes. The data include close to 4000 African American and white women who were born between 1938 and 1967 and participated in the National Survey of Families and Households. This project addresses critical gaps in research on the homeleaving process of young women in general and young mothers in particular, and has the potential to inform policymakers regarding welfare policies. The study will regorously consider developmental progressions which, although critical elements of life-span and life-course theories, have been relatively neglected by empiral research. In addition, the research adds to the literature on the leaving home process by moving from static to dynamic (event history) models and by accounting for endogeneity amoung routes out of the home. As such, the work can inform the research community regarding alternative explanations for shifting patterns in marital and non-marital routes out of the home in recent decases. Finally, the study will substantially extend the investigator's own and other past research on when young mothers live at home. By allowing for endogeneity in the timing and occurrence of childbearing, the model accounts for selective distinctions among childless women and earlier and later childbearers. Thus, fair comparisons can be made among these groups. In addition, by simultaneously considering exits from home within and outside of marriage, the study will be the first to pull together the small literature on AFDC effects on leaving the parental home and the larger literature on AFDC effects on marriage. The products of this educational and research enhancement will be substantial. The investigator's research involves the applied developmental and demographic sciences, and the joint analysis of endogenous event processes will be instrumental to her producing knowledge at the forefront of these fields over her career. She is committed to facilitating applications of the methodological advancements of a particular discipline to the methodological quandaries of another discipline or topical area. Through published applications of these methodologies, as well as instructional pieces, she hopes to facilitate the cross-utilization of such state-of-the-art methods.