ARB: CRB: Demographic and Genetic Factors in Extinction

物种形成和灭绝之间的平衡决定了地球上任何时候存在的生物多样性。由于人类活动，特别是栖息地的破坏和破碎化、过度开发和外来物种的引入，世界上成千上万的动植物物种正面临过早灭绝的威胁。由于所涉及的过程的复杂性，需要数学模型和计算机模拟来评估影响灭绝风险的不同因素的相对重要性和相互作用。这一建议涉及影响种群灭绝风险的几种人口统计学和遗传因素的模型，重点是在小型和空间分布的种群中以及在相互作用的物种群落中发挥作用的随机因素。将推导出灭绝概率和时间的公式，并进行计算机模拟，以了解各种风险因素及其相互作用的重要性。这项调查的结果将有助于评估灭绝风险和制定受威胁和濒危物种的管理计划。在小型和空间分布的种群中，人口和遗传过程的现实模型的综合是保护生物学可以在生态学和进化的界面上促进基本进展的一个领域。

Lande9806363The balance between speciation and extinction determines the biological diversity existing on earth at any time. Thousands of animal and plant species around the world are now threatened with premature extinction by human activities, especially habitat destruction and fragmentation, overexploitation, and introduction of exotic species. Because of the complexity of the processes involved, mathematical models and computer simulations are necessary to assess the relative importance and interactions of different factors affecting extinction risks. This proposal concerns models of several demographic and genetic factors affecting the risk of population extinction, with emphasis on random factors operating in small and spatially distributed populations, and in communities of interacting species. Formulas for probabilities and times of extinction will be derived and computer simulations performed to understand the importance of various risk factors and their interactions. The results of this investigation will help in the assessment of extinction risks and the development of management plans for threatened and endangered species. The synthesis of realistic models of demographic and genetic processes in small and spatially distributed populations is an area in which conservation biology can contribute to fundamental advances at the interface of ecology and evolution.