An Integrated Modeling Environment for Urban Change Research

*9817761克拉克这个城市研究倡议(URI)项目将开发一个综合建模环境(IME)，用于跨学科研究与城市变化有关的广泛问题。IME的核心是已经成功应用于巴尔的摩/华盛顿和旧金山大都市区的不断演变的城市空间结构模型。这项研究极大地扩展了先前模型的能力，使其能够与影响城市领域的各种其他自然和社会过程模型相结合，通过加强其理论和技术基础和分析实用性，并通过将其整合到便于使用的便携式环境中，以调查各种城市研究和政策问题。在IME-1一级，重点放在不断变化的城市空间结构上，就像以前的模型一样，但现在可以通过与其他自然和人文城市子系统的模型联系起来，建立更多样和更复杂的城市增长模型。IME-2水平是为了调查更一般的，而不是直接的地理城市研究和政策问题，其中城市空间结构是几个关键因素之一。研究计划由四项相互关联的任务组成。第一项任务是发展输入法的理论和技术框架。任务二通过对选定的大都市地区的增长模式进行建模和分析，在IME-1层面上演示和测试了该方法的有效性。第三项任务在IME-2水平上论证和测试了该方法的有效性，该研究试图通过耦合几种不同的物理和人类过程模型，包括城市空间结构模型来预测土地利用强度和人口分布。第四项任务侧重于IME的计算实施和传播。传播计划包括开发两个关于城市变化的网络课程(一个本科生和一个研究生)。*该项目是多机构的，将加州大学圣巴巴拉分校和另外两个由联邦政府资助的主要项目联系起来：美国地质调查局的城市回顾/城市动力学倡议将为大都市地区提供数据，并协助更常规的建模工作。洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室的城市安全倡议将在复杂动态模型的理论和技术方面以及物理科学模型与城市模型的耦合方面提供先进的专门知识。它还将在需要的地方提供对超级计算资源的访问。

***9817761ClarkeThis Urban Research Initiative (URI) project will develop an integratedmodeling environment (IME) for the cross-disciplinary study of a widerange of questions pertaining to urban change. At the core of IME is amodel of evolving urban spatial structure already successfully appliedto the Baltimore/Washington and San Francisco metropolitan areas. Thisresearch drastically extends the capabilities of the previous model byallowing it to be combined with a variety of other models of naturaland social processes affecting the urban realm, by strengthening itstheoretical and technical base and analytical utility, and byintegrating it within a portable user-friendly environment for theinvestigation of a variety of urban research and policy questions.IME consists of two levels. At the IME-1 level the focus is on thechanging urban spatial structure, as in the earlier model, but now amuch more versatile and sophisticated range of urban growth models canbe built through the linkage with models of other natural and humanurban subsystems. The IME-2 level is for investigating more general,not directly geographic urban research and policy questions, whereurban spatial structure is one of several key factors. The researchplan consists of four interrelated tasks. Task One develops thetheoretical and technical framework for the IME. Task Two demonstratesand tests the validity of the approach at the IME-1 level throughmodeling and analyzing the growth patterns of selected metropolitanregions. Task Three demonstrates and tests the validity of theapproach at the IME-2 level with a study seeking to predict land useintensity and population distribution through coupling of severaldifferent models of physical and human processes, including a model ofurban spatial structure. Task Four focuses on the computationalimplementation and dissemination of the IME. Dissemination plansinclude the development of two (one undergraduate and one graduate)Web-based courses on urban change.***The project is multi-institutional, linking together the University ofCalifornia Santa Barbara and two other major federally funded projects: the Urban Retrospectives/Urban Dynamics initiative at the UnitedStates Geological Survey will provide the data for the metropolitanareas and assist with the more routine modeling work. The UrbanSecurity initiative at the Los Alamos National Laboratory willcontribute advanced expertise on the theoretical and technical aspectsof complex dynamic models, and on the coupling of physical sciencemodels with urban models. It will also provide access tosupercomputing resources where needed.