Should We Mine the Landfills: An Industrial Stocks and Flows Proposal

我们的技术社会所使用的材料的历史储备一直是未开发的库存（矿体，矿床等）。 由于各种原因，这些储存在今后的某些时候或某些地方可能会变得不足或无法获得。 然而，还存在其他储存库，其中一个主要储存库是公司和个人多年来储存或丢弃的产品。 在未来几十年人口快速增长和资源使用的情况下，这些水库可能会变得非常重要，但我们对它们的总丰度以及它们存在的化学和物理形式知之甚少。 在这项研究中，我们将评估特定材料（选自铜、银、锌、镉、ABS聚合物和建筑木材）的当前和历史流量，估计不同类型水库的可用库存，特别是工业和市政垃圾填埋场。 为了做到这一点，我们将主要利用分散在许多数据库和卓越中心的信息：矿物学和地质学记录、经济数据、工业协会出版物、环境记录等等，历史记录应该允许评估扩展，至少大约包括整个世纪。 预计将看到材料库存和流动信息的巨大效用，并可根据其结果采取一些技术和政策行动。 特别是，它预计将是最有用的，以评估非原生材料水库作为潜在的工业材料的来源，为下一个千年。

The historical reservoir for the materials used by our technological society has been virgin stocks (ore bodies, mineral deposits, and the like). For a variety of reasons, those stocks may become inadequate or unavailable at some times or places in the future. Other reservoirs exist, however, a principal one being products stored or discarded over the years by corporations and individuals. These latter reservoirs might become very important in the next few decades of rapid population growth and resource use, but we know little about their total abundance and the chemical and physical forms in which they exist. In this research, we will evaluate current and historical flows of specific materials (selected from copper, silver, zinc, cadmium, ABS polymer and construction timber), estimate the stocks available in different types of reservoirs, especially industrial and municipal landfills. To do so, we will draw largely on information now scattered across a number of data depositories and centers of excellence: mineralogical and geological records, economic data, industrial association publications, environmental records, and so on. Historical records should permit the assessment to be extended, at least approximately, to include the entire 20th century. The expectation is that there will be seen to be substantial utility in material stock and flow information and that a number of technological and policy actions may be guided by the results. In particular, it is anticipated that it will be most useful to evaluate non-virgin materials reservoirs as potential sources of industrial materials for the next millennium.