Collaborative Research: The Political Consequences of Felon Disenfranchisement in the United States

本项目将研究美国重罪犯被剥夺公民权的起源、范围和后果。我们的初步估计表明，1996年有460万选民因犯罪身份而被剥夺公民权，而就在1972年，这一数字还不到50万。该项目有三个总体目标：(1)估计被剥夺公民权的重罪犯人口的规模，并模拟这一群体未来规模的趋势。(2)考虑到重罪犯的人口不成比例地来自少数族裔和穷人，因此更有可能从民主党而不是共和党候选人那里获得选票，评估剥夺公民权的一些选举后果。(3)考察各州在对待重罪犯投票权方面差异的根源。方法将包括计算机模拟，分析来自全国选举研究的数据，以及来自当前人口调查投票补充调查的州一级投票率信息。利用不同州法律的法定历史信息，我们将通过对所有州政策制度变化时间的定量检查，以及对最近修改法律的几个州进行更详细的以案例为导向的检查，探索产生这些不同结果的因素。虽然法律理论家和政策倡导者已经研究了这个问题的某些方面，但我们的调查将是对重罪犯被剥夺公民权的第一次系统的社会科学研究。

This project will examine the origins, scope, and consequences of felon disenfranchisement in the United States. Our preliminary estimates suggest that 4.6 million voters were disenfranchised in 1996 due to their criminal status, up from less than 500,000 as recently as 1972. The project has three general objectives: (1) Estimate the size of the disenfranchised felon population and model the trends in the size of this group into the future. (2) Assess some of the electoral consequences of disenfranchisement, given that the felon population is drawn disproportionately from the ranks of racial minorities and the poor, and hence is more likely to take votes from Democratic than Republican candidates. (3) Examine the sources of the differences among the states in the treatment of felon voting rights. Methodolgies will include computer simulations, analyses of data from the National Election Study, and state-level turnout information from the Current Population Survey Voting Supplement surveys. Using information about the statutory histories of the different state laws, we will explore the factors producing these different outcomes through a quantitative examination of the timing of changes in policy regimes across all states, and a more detailed case-oriented examination of several states that have recently changed their law. Although legal theorists and policy advocates have examined some aspects of the issue, our investigation will be the first systematic social scientific examination of felon disenfranchisement.