SGER: Rapid Response to Natural Disturbance: Development of an Empirically-Based, Spatially-Explicit Model of the Effects of Hurricanes on Tropical Forests

Canham9906713空间明确的森林模型已经成功地开发了几个温带森林。 有些这类模式，如SORTIE，成功地反映了森林发展的若干现实特点，并被广泛认为是现实的。 到目前为止，这些类型的模型只在非常有限的程度上应用于热带生境中生长的复杂森林，1998年9月，乔治飓风袭击了波多黎各的森林，造成毁灭性影响。 这场风暴是在过去十年中袭击该岛的其他飓风之后发生的。 飓风乔治的破坏性影响对于为波多黎各森林开发类似SORTIE的模型有一个好处。 他们提供了一个机会，直接应用模型的热带森林的自然干扰后立即发展。 该项目需要一个SGER时间轴，因为它将收集应用模型所需的初始现场数据，这些数据必须在快速发展的热带生态系统受到干扰后立即收集。 该模型将用于解决一系列广泛的假设，经常性的飓风对物种多样性的影响，社区动态，生态系统结构和功能的热带森林，通过测试经验为基础的预测热带森林对飓风的反应。

Canham9906713Spatially-explicit forest models have been successfully developed for several temperate forests. Some such models, such as SORTIE, have been successful at capturing several realistic features of forest development and have been widely accepted as realistic. Until now, these types of models have been applied to the complex forests that develop in Tropical habitats to only a very limited extent.Hurricane Georges struck forests on Puerto Rico with devastating effects in September 1998. This storm followed other hurricanes that struck the island during the past 10 years. The devastating effects of Hurricane Georges have one advantage for developing a SORTIE-like model for the Puerto Rico forest. They provide an opportunity to apply the model directly to the development of a tropical forest immediately following its natural disturbance. This project requires a SGER timeline because it will collect the initial field data necessary for the application of the model, data that must be collected immediately following a disturbance in a rapidly developing tropical ecosystem. The model will be used to address a broad suite of hypotheses on the effects of recurrent hurricanes on species diversity, community dynamics, and ecosystem structure and function in tropical forests by testing empirically based prediction on the responses of tropical forests to hurricanes.