Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: The Persistence of Presidential Campaigns in the Public Agenda

研究美国政治的学者们继续争论竞选和选举是否真的重要。毕竟，竞选的结果可以通过总统批准和选举前一年的经济因素来预测(盖尔曼和金，1993；刘易斯-贝克和赖斯，1992)。因此，有人争辩说，竞选活动对政治的影响必须是最小的。这一博士论文研究项目认为，总统竞选活动确实很重要。它们不仅对选举结果很重要，而且对公共政策也很重要，因为它们影响了选举后的公共议程，并确立了随后对总统进行评估的标准。竞选活动在很大程度上是通过竞选信息在公众意识中的持久性来影响治理的。研究人员利用有关竞选效果、民意形成、议程设置和总统评价的文献来探讨民主选举与公共政策之间的联系。使用在2000年总统竞选期间及之后收集的新收集的滚动横截面调查数据，研究人员在考虑个体差异的情况下测试了三个基本假设。首先，总统候选人强调的主题对公众来说变得越来越重要。第二，获胜者的主题将持续存在于公共议程和他的政府中。第三，竞选主题为总统评估奠定了基础。总而言之，总统竞选活动不仅仅是对公众议程作出回应；他们在制定议程方面发挥了重要作用。公众不仅关注竞选议程，还要求总统在选举后负责。

Scholars of American politics continue to debate whether campaigns and elections really matter. After all, the outcomes of campaigns can be predicted by presidential approval and economic factors a year before the election (Gelman and King, 1993; Lewis-Beck and Rice, 1992). Accordingly, it is argued that the influence of campaigns on the polity must be minimal. This doctoral dissertation research project argues that presidential campaigns do matter. They matter not just for the election outcomes, but also for public policy by influencing the public agenda after the election and by establishing the criteria by which presidents are evaluated subsequently. Campaigns influence governing largely through the persistence of campaign messages in the public consciousness. The researcher draws on the literatures on campaign effects, public opinion formation, agenda setting, and presidential evaluation to address the link between democratic elections and public policy. Using newly collected rolling-cross section survey data collected during the 2000 presidential campaign and after, the investigator tests three basic hypotheses while allowing for individual variation. The first is the themes emphasized by presidential candidates become increasing important to the public. The second is the winner's themes persist in the public agenda and into his administration. The third is that the campaign themes establish the bases for presidential evaluations. In sum, presidential campaigns do not simply respond to the public agenda; they play an important role in setting it. The public does not merely attend to the campaign agenda; it holds the president accountable after the election.