Watching the Canary in the Mine: The Impact of Industry-Level Failure and Performance Variance on Survival-Enhancing Learning

Anne S.Miner-威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校Ji-Yub Kim-威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校#0001718观察矿场中的金丝雀：行业层面的失败和业绩差异对提高生存能力的学习的影响当代管理理论、商学院课程和对经理的建议主要集中在公司如何向成功的公司学习。例如，他们强调要努力复制行业“赢家”的“最佳实践”。我们认为，组织也确实从观察他人失败和濒临失败的程度中学习。他们还可以从所在行业的表现差异中学习。我们通过观察以前的银行倒闭水平、接近倒闭水平和业绩差异对1984年以来特许经营的2,724家FDIC担保的美国商业银行在15年内(1984-1998)的存活率的影响来研究这些想法。我们使用事件历史分析来检验我们的想法。我们的第一个基本观点是，其他公司的失败和濒临失败可以在剩下的公司中产生“生存增强学习”。我们认为，失败可以成为他人学习的源泉。我们认为，这种学习的价值受到以下因素的影响：失败是否非常明显，以及其他公司的经验是否确实相关。这些想法意味着，先前的行业失败水平(先前失败的数量)和濒临失败的水平(陷入困境但恢复元气的公司数量)将对生存增强学习产生不同的影响。我们还预测，银行将以不同的方式从本地或非本地市场的失败中吸取教训，或者从类似或不同的组织中吸取教训。我们的第二个主要观点是，公司也可以从以前行业在业绩和极端成功水平上的差异中学习。公司可以通过从以前的行业经验中吸取抽象的“教训”，从先前的业绩变化中吸取教训。如果这是最强大的学习形式，那么表现的差异应该比失败或成功本身产生更大的影响。我们的第三个主要观点是，企业不仅可以从本行业的失败和业绩差异水平中学习，还可以从其他相关行业的经验中学习。我们通过研究储蓄和贷款行业的经验对银行生存提升学习的影响来研究这一想法。初步结果表明，接近失败经验水平的行业水平提高了银行的生存能力，储蓄和贷款行业的失败和接近失败的水平也是如此，甚至控制了这些失败可能导致的额外资源。这项研究将为寻求学习他人经验的管理人员提供宝贵的见解，并为寻求提高行业整体生存和繁荣的行业领导者或行业协会官员提供宝贵的见解。它还提供了组织间学习和竞争之间的联系的理论见解，以及企业如何从自己的行业经验和其他行业学习。

Anne S. Miner - University of Wisconsin MadisonJi-Yub Kim - University of Wisconsin Madison. # 0001718ABSTRACTWatching the canary in the mine:The impact of industry-level failure and performance variance on survival-enhancing learningContemporary management theory, business school curricula, and advice for managers focus heavily on how firms can learn from successful firms. They emphasize trying to copy 'best practices,' of apparent industry 'winners,' for example. We argue that organizations and do also learn from observing the levels of failure and near-failure by others. They also could learn from variation in performance in their industry. We study these ideas by looking at the effect of prior bank failure levels, near failure levels and performance variation on the survival rates for 2,724 FDIC-insured U.S. commercial banks chartered since 1984 over a 15-year period (1984-1998). We use event history analysis to test our ideas. Our first basic idea is that failure and near-failure of others can produce "survival enhancing learning" in remaining firms. We argue that failure of can serve as a source of learning for others. We argue that the value of such learning is influenced by whether the failures are very visible, and whether the experience of the other firms is actually relevant. These ideas imply that prior industry failure levels (numbers of prior failures) and near-failure levels (numbers of firms that were in trouble but revived) will have different effects on survival enhancing learning. We also predict banks will learn in different ways from failure in local or non-local markets, or by similar or dissimilar organizations. Our second main idea is that firms may also learn from prior industry variation in performance and from extreme success levels. Firms may learn from prior variation in performance by drawing abstract "lessons" from the prior industry experience. If this is the most powerful form of learning, then performance variation should have greater impact than just failure or success levels by themselves. Our third main idea is that firms learn not only from failure and performance variation levels in their own industry, but also from the experience of other, related industries. We study this idea by looking at the impact of experience in the savings and loan industry on survival enhancing learning by banks.Preliminary results show that industry levels of near failure experience levels enhance the survival of banks, as do the levels of failure and near-failure in the savings and loan industry, even controlling for the additional resources that might be available as a result of these failures. This research will provide valuable insight for managers who seek to learn from the experience of others, and to industry leaders or trade-association officers who seek to enhance the overall survival and prosperity in their industry. It also provides theoretical insight into the links between interorganizational learning and competition, and how firms learn from their own industry experience and from other industries.