Stratospheric and Oceanic Contribution to Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability

该项目试图确定平流层变化对地球表面的影响如何受到模型分辨率、模型物理的改进以及所使用的海洋模型的性质(动力海洋与混合层海洋)的影响。PIS将审查北大西洋的任何冷却在多大程度上是自然变化或强迫的特征(包括海洋热量输送的变化、大气环流的变化、温室气体和/或气溶胶负荷的增加)。指标将：(1)量化将平流层动力学纳入气候变化实验的重要性以及对流层和海洋进行重要反馈的可能性；(2)(根据特定情景)预测北大西洋表面气温的未来趋势，并审查它们对纳入平流层和海洋组成部分的依赖程度；(3)审查研究中使用的所有模式配置在多大程度上支持人为气候变化的特征。将使用垂直和水平分辨率更高的NASA GISS模型。该模型还将包括在线臭氧化学和运输。这将改善平流层中的太阳周期加热效应。将使用年际变化的海温，这可能有助于产生比低分辨率更真实的夏季结果。这项工作很重要，因为它将增进人们对平流层在气候中的作用的理解。

This project seeks to determine how the impact of stratospheric changes at the earth's surface is affected by model resolution, improvements in model physics and the nature of the ocean model used (dynamical versus mixed layer ocean). The PIs will examine to what extent any cooling in the North Atlantic is a feature of natural variability or forced (including ocean heat transport changes, changes in atmospheric circulation, increasing greenhouse gases and/or aerosol loadings). The PIs will (i) to quantify the importance of including stratospheric dynamics in climate change experiments and the potential for important tropospheric and oceanic feedbacks; (ii) to project (based on given scenarios) future trends in the North Atlantic surface air temperature and examine their dependence on the inclusion of the stratospheric and oceanic components; and (iii) to examine to what extent fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change are robust over all the model configurations used in the study. The NASA GISS model with finer vertical and horizontal resolution will be used. The model will also include on-line ozone chemistry and transport. This will improve the solar cycle heating effects in the stratosphere. Interannual varying SST will be used, this may help generate more realistic summer results than with the low resolution. The work is important because it will increase understanding of the role of the stratosphere in climate.