Social Security and the Wealth Distribution with Overlapping Generations and Aggregate Uncertainty

本研究在具有总冲击的模型中探讨社会保障改革的宏观经济和福利影响。它的动机是观察到美国的大萧条导致了无资金社会保障制度的引入，但无资金社会保障制度对代际总风险分配的作用在理论上或定量上都没有得到很好的理解。本研究的主要目标是在具有随机生产、特殊不确定性和大量代际的重叠代际模型中，定量评估从现收现付制到全基金制的社会保障改革的总体经济和福利效应。鉴于目前关于社会保障制度改革的争论，本研究的另一个目标是告知政策制定者，在总体经济波动的情况下，从无资金支持的社会保障制度向有资金支持的社会保障制度转变所涉及的权衡。

This research investigates the macroeconomic and welfare implications of social security reform in models with aggregate shocks. It is motivated by the observation that the great depression in the U.S. led to an introduction of an unfunded social security system, yet the role of an unfunded social security system for the allocation of intergenerational aggregate risk are not well understood theoretically or quantitatively.A primary goal of this research is to quantitatively evaluate the aggregate economic and welfare effects of a social security reform from a pay-as-you-go to a fully funded system within an overlapping generations model with stochastic production, idiosyncratic uncertainty, and a large number of generations. Given the current debates about reform of the social security system, another goal of this research is to inform policy makers about the trade-offs involved in moving from an unfunded to a funded system of social security in the presence of aggregate economic fluctuations.