Examining the rarity assumption and its implications

【摘要】Craig R. M. mckenzie提出的研究主题是日常的推理行为比以前认为的要准确得多。人不是通用的推理机器，而是适应了他们通常操作的环境结构。这使他们能够利用既简单又准确的策略。提出的实验检验了一个重要的环境特征的作用：数据或观察的罕见或意外程度。罕见的观察比常见的观察更能提供信息，人们似乎对哪些事件是罕见的做出了强烈的假设。这些假设在实验室之外也有意义，有助于解释以前的许多发现，并导致新的预测。拟议中的实验详细考察了人们对稀有的敏感性，以及对思考和推理的几个研究领域的影响。

AbstractProposal 0079615PI: Craig R. M. McKenzieThe theme of the proposed research is that everyday inferential behavior is much more accurate than previously thought. People are not general-purpose inference machines, but are instead adapted to the structure of the environment in which they typically operate. This allows them to exploit strategies that are both simple and accurate. The proposed experiments examine the role of an important environmental feature: The extent to which a datum, or observation, is rare or unexpected. Rare observations are more informative than common ones, and people appear to make strong assumptions about what kinds of events are rare. These assumptions make sense outside of the laboratory and help explain many previous findings and lead to new predictions. The proposed experiments examine in detail people's sensitivity to rarity and the implications for several areas of research on thinking and reasoning.