RUI: Modeling Spatially-Structured Dynamics for Benthic Predation

越来越多的人意识到空间结构动力学是许多生态系统的重要考虑因素。当一个久居物种的个体之间的局部相互作用非常强烈时，这一点尤其正确。潮间带群落往往表现出强烈的个体间局部相互作用，其种群密集、空间尺度小、分布格局明显，表明该系统特别适合于空间结构动态的研究。尽管如此，关于潮间带底栖动物群落的空间显式理论的开发工作却很少。这一生态学领域发展和测试机械性空间显式动态模型的时机已经成熟。本研究的第一个目标是发展一种空间显式的“多模型”方法来研究底栖群落的捕食行为。研究的重点将是潮间带贻贝的种群，它是太平洋海岸岩石海岸的重要竞争对手，它的捕食者是西北部的海星翡翠海星，以及南加州的带刺龙虾Panulirus interruptus。将发展和分析三类空间显式模型：(1)元胞自动机，(2)由偏微分方程和常微分方程组组成的分析模型，(3)基于个体的模型。将在模型之间进行比较和交叉验证，以利用每个模型所具有的优势。只要有可能，模型参数值将从野外和实验室数据中估计出来，模型预测将与野外收集的精细分布数据进行比较，模型模拟将被用于建议新的野外实验。第二个目标是为对将数学和计算机科学的工具和技术应用于生态问题感兴趣的硕士学生提供丰富的跨学科培训经验。项目资金将用于向三名研究生提供全日制支持，他们将从加州州立大学洛杉矶分校和邻近机构的不同种族学生群体中招募。将聘请一名博士后研究助理来开发基于个人的模型，并协助学生指导。将为每个学生设计跨学科的学习计划，培训将包括参加NCEAS工作组和夏季实地体验。该项目将增进我们对近岸海洋底栖动物群落如何发展和维护的了解，并将有助于培训下一代生态学家。

There is a growing realization that spatially- structured dynamics are an important consideration for many ecological systems. This is particularly true when local interactions among individuals of a sedentary species are intense. Intertidal communities often display intense local interactions among individuals, and the dense populations, small spatial scale, and striking distribution patterns of the communities suggest that this system is especially apt for investigations of spatially-structured dynamics. Despite this fact, little work has been done to develop a spatially-explicit theory for intertidal benthic communities. This area of ecology is ripe for the development and testing of mechanistic spatially-explicit dynamic models.The first objective of this study is to develop a spatially-explicit "multi-model" approach to the study of predation in benthic communities. Research will focus on populations of the intertidal mussel Mytilus califonianus, an important dominant competitor along rocky shores of the Pacific coast, and its predators, the sea star Pisaster ochraceus in the Northwest and the spiny lobster, Panulirus interruptus, in Southern California. Three classes of spatially-explicit models will be developed and analyzed: (1) cellular automata, (2) analytical models consisting of partial and ordinary differential equations, and (3) individual -based models. Comparison and cross-validation will occur among models in order to take advantage of the strengths and that each has to offer. Whenever possible, model parameter values will estimated from field and laboratory data, model predictions will be compared to fine-scaled distributional data being collected in the field, and the model simulations will be used to suggest novel field experiments.The second objective is to provide a rich interdisciplinary training experience for master's students who are interested in applying the tools and techniques of mathematics and computer science to ecological problems. Project funds will be used to provide full-time support to three graduate students who will be recruited from the ethnically-diverse student body at Cal State LA and neighboring institutions. A postdoctoral research associate will be hired to develop the individual-based models and assist with student mentoring. Interdisciplinary programs of study will be designed for each student and training will include participation in an NCEAS workgroup and a summer field experience.This project will advance our knowledge of how nearshore marine benthic communities develop and are maintained and will contribute to the training of the next generation of ecologists.