Metapopulation Models and Control of Tuberculosis in African Buffalo

这项研究的目标是发展一个关于传染病在空间上不同的人群中传播和维持的一般理论。该理论将在南非克鲁格国家公园(KNP)非洲水牛种群中的牛结核病(BTB)以及该疾病对生活在KNP边界上的牛和人类的溢出影响的背景下进行开发和测试。这项研究涉及从被固定的水牛身上采集的痰和血液样本中收集BTB患病率和菌株数据，其中一些将被标记和戴上项圈，用于无线电跟踪研究个体在牛群之间的移动和牛群在整个地形上的移动。这些数据将被合并到空间上明确的和生态上详细的预测模型中，然后将用于测试理论和评估管理替代方案，如接种疫苗、清除受感染的个人，以及在特定治疗制度下维持不同的疾病株。这项研究将提供对结核病的进一步洞察，结核病是人类的一个严重问题，目前非洲的艾滋病流行和耐药菌株的出现加剧了这一问题。它还将为控制艾滋病毒本身等其他传染病传播的因素提供洞察力。

The goal of this study is to develop a general theory of the spread and maintenance of communicable diseases in spatially heterogeneous populations. The theory will be developed and tested in the context of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in the African buffalo population in the Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa, as well as the spill-over of this disease to cattle and humans living on the boundaries of KNP. The study involves collecting BTB prevalence and strain data from sputum and blood samples taken from immobilized buffalo, some of which will be marked and collared for radio tracking studies of the movement of individuals between herds and the movement of herds over the landscape. The data will be incorporated into a spatially explicit and ecologically detailed predictive model that will then used to test theory and evaluate management alternatives such as vaccination, removal of infected individuals, and the maintenance of different strains of the diseases under particular treatment regimes. The study will provide further insights into tuberculosis, which is a serious problem in humans that is exacerbated by the current AIDS epidemic in Africa and the emergence of drug resistant strains. It will also provide insights into factors controlling the spread of other communicable diseases such as HIV itself.