Cary Conference IX (May 1-3, 2001) -- Understanding Ecosystems: The Role of Quantitative Models in Observation, Synthesis and Prediction

00-99639坎姆会议支持：理解生态系统：定量模型在观察、合成和预测中的作用本次会议将重点讨论定量模型在理解生态系统中的作用。会议主题将强调模型在生态系统科学研究、教育和决策中的作用；测试和验证模型；模型中的机制、分辨率和不确定性；以及预测生态系统动态。选择这些主题是为了迫使作者综合文献，而不是呈现一个或几个特定模型的细节。近年来，建模师可以使用的计算能力和数学工具有了巨大的进步。传统的、机械论的、经验主义的研究机构也在惊人地增长。该领域在模型的合成和预测能力方面取得重大进展的时机已经成熟，而此时社会对能够为关键环境问题的辩论提供信息的定量模型的需求日益增长。定量模型通过探索观察、综合和预测之间的相互作用，提供了一种测试对生态系统的理解的方法。综合和预测模型的实用性是显而易见的。定量模型在提供信息和指导观察和实验方面的作用可能不太受重视，但同样有价值。这次会议由生态系统研究所主办，将于2001年5月1日至3日举行。

00-99639CanhamConference support: Understanding Ecosystems: The Role of Quantitative Models in Observation, Synthesis, and PredictionThis conference will focus on the role of quantitative models in understanding ecosystems. The conference themes will emphasize the role of models in ecosystem science research, education and decision making; testing and validating models; mechanisms, resolution and uncertainty in models; and predicting ecosystem dynamics. The topics were chosen to oblige authors to synthesize the literature, rather than present details of one or a few specific models. Recent years have seen dramatic advancements in the computational power and mathematical tools available to modelers. The body of traditional, mechanistic, empirical research is also growing phenomenally. The field is ripe for major gains in the synthetic and predictive power of models, and this comes at a time of growing need by society for quantitative models that can inform debate about critical environmental issues. Quantitative models provide a means to test understanding of ecosystems by allowing the exploration of interactions among observation, synthesis, and prediction. The utility of models for synthesis and prediction is obvious. The role of quantitative models in informing and guiding observation and experimentation is perhaps less often appreciated, but equally valuable. The conference is being hosted by the Institute of Ecosystem Studies and will take place May 1-3, 2001.