Space Weather: Predicting Radiation Level at Shocks Passage at Earth

这项研究将把从SOHO/LASCO和EIT获得的联合收割机太阳图像和行星际激波的现场太阳风观测与激波全球特性的磁流体动力学模拟结合起来。从这个综合中，人们可以得到关于激波源相对于地球的位置、日冕物质抛射的大小、激波压缩参数和在1 Au处原位观测的磁化等离子体流的特性的信息。这些信息将用于确定在1 Au处激波通过时对太阳高能粒子水平的影响。因此，通过这一分析，应当有可能开发出比目前通过诺阿空间气象服务提供的更好的地球辐射水平预测能力。

This study will combine solar images derived from SOHO/LASCO and EIT and in-situ solar wind observations of interplanetary shocks with magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the global characteristics of the shock. From this synthesis one may derive information on the shock source location with respect to the Earth, the size of the coronal mass ejection, the shock compression parameters and characteristics of the magnetized plasma flow at its in situ observation at 1 AU. This information will be used to identify the effect on the level of solar energetic particles at shock passage at 1 AU. As a result of this analysis, it should thus be possible to develop a better forecast capability for radiation levels at Earth than what is currently available through the NOAA space weather service.