Collaborative Research: Pilot Study in Tropical Isotope Dendroclimatology

这项研究的科学策略利用稳定同位素树木生态学、质谱法和分析化学领域的最新突破，开发缺乏年轮的热带树木的年代和气候代理数据。树轮记录已显示出巨大的潜力，长期观测（500年前本或更长时间），但在程度上是有限的，因为许多热带树种形成环间歇性或根本没有本研究的最终目标是开发每年解决代理估计降雨量变化从印尼在过去的几个世纪。预计这些数据将补充由热带珊瑚礁和热带外树木组成的现有代用数据网络，从而直接有助于观测厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）过去的频率和强度变化。 热带地区是全球气候系统的重要组成部分，具有在季节到年际时间尺度上组织全球尺度气候异常的动力学和能量学。来自模式的证据表明，热带地区可能是长期尺度上全球气候变化的持续影响。 热带气候的长期多变性有可能影响世界人口整整四分之一的生活，主要是由于季节性正常降水和农业模式的中断。到目前为止，热带地区最重要的季节到年度分辨率代用记录档案来自珊瑚礁和冰芯的测量。然而，它们也有其局限性，因为很少有珊瑚记录早于现有的100 - 150年的历史观测记录，而冰芯记录虽然更早，但仅限于少数迅速消失的热带冰原。 获得重复的300 - 500年长的记录的前景仍然具有挑战性，但同位素树木气候学提供了很大的希望，在缩小数据差距，并以这种方式，提供了广泛的影响，许多科学领域的潜力。

The scientific strategy for this research exploits recent breakthroughs in stable isotope dendro-ecology, mass spectrometry, and analytical chemistry to develop chronological and climate proxy data in tropical trees that lack rings. Tree-ring records have shown great potential for long term observations (500 years before present or longer) but are limited in extent because many tropical tree species form rings intermittently or not at all.The ultimate goal of this research is to develop annually resolved proxy estimates of rainfall variability from Indonesia for the past several centuries. These data are expected to directly contribute to observations of past changes in frequency and strength of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by complementing the existing proxy data network composed of tropical reef corals and extratropical trees. The tropics are an important component of the global climate system, possessing the dynamics and energetics to organize global-scale climatic anomalies on seasonal to interannual time scales. Evidence from models suggests the tropics may be a persistent influence of global climate variability on long time scales. Long-term variability in the tropical climate has the potential to affect the lives of fully a quarter of the world's population primarily through the interruption of seasonally normal precipitation and agricultural patterns. To date the most important archives for seasonal to annual resolution proxy records in the tropics have been derived from measurements from coral reefs and ice cores. They have their limitations, however, as few coral records predate the existing 100-150 year long historical observational record and ice core records, while older, are limited to a few rapidly disappearing tropical ice fields. Prospects for obtaining replicated 300-500 year long records remain challenging but isotope dendroclimatology offers great promise in closing the data gap and, in this manner, offers the potential for broad impact to many scientific fields.