P2C2: Hydroclimatic response of the tropical Pacific to past changes in mean state: Observations and synthesis

P2C2:热带太平洋对过去平均状态变化的水文气候响应:观测与综合

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    1606764
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 14.1万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2016
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2016-08-01 至 2019-07-31
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

How will El Niño events change as the climate changes? There is currently no consensus on the answer to this question from climate change projections for the 21st century. Yet even small changes in El Niño event strength, duration or frequency have significant effects, both in the US and internationally, on water resources, wildfires, agriculture and ecosystems. This project will contribute new observations and analysis of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity during two past time intervals for which there are very few data from the tropical Pacific, yet for which the global climate is thought to have been relatively warm and relatively cold, respectively. Results will be compared to climate simulations for the same periods, so that we can better understand if, how and why global climate change can cause changes in El Niño activity. The project will also provide mentored, international, collaborative, and multidisciplinary training for a PhD student and an undergraduate researcher, including educational, outreach and dissemination activities. It will contribute inputs for modeling the interactions between people, fisheries and climate in a location and region with a rich archaeological history of pre-modern settlement, voyaging and exploration. These studies, which are beyond the scope of this project, may ultimately help us understand how societies have and may adapt to past and future climate change.Specifically, paired oxygen isotope and Sr/Ca data series will be developed from existing and diagenetically screened coral samples dating to the Little Ice Age (LIA) and Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) time windows from Aitutaki, southern Cook Islands (18.85S, 159.79W). Preliminary analysis suggests interannual variations in present day (PD) coral oxygen isotopic composition from the region primarily reflect sea surface salinity (SSS) variability resulting from changes in the position and strength of the South Pacific Convergence Zone associated with ENSO activity. In conjunction with other hydroclimatic and oceanographic paleoclimate data available for these time windows and the PD, the research team will test whether there were differences in interannual event amplitude and recurrence interval in the LIA and MCA relative to the PD. The team will compare the results to those obtained from similarly sampled, PMIP3-compliant physical climate simulations with both complete and single external radiative forcings. Comparison of observations and simulations, within the context of their uncertainties, will be used to assess if and the extent to which the observed hydroclimatic response is forced or unforced, and by what mechanisms.
厄尔尼诺Niño事件将如何随着气候变化而变化?从21世纪的气候变化预测来看,目前对这个问题的答案还没有达成共识。然而,即使是El Niño事件强度、持续时间或频率的微小变化,也会对美国和国际上的水资源、野火、农业和生态系统产生重大影响。该项目将对厄尔尼诺Niño/南方涛动(ENSO)在过去两个时间间隔内的活动提供新的观测和分析,这两个时间间隔来自热带太平洋的数据很少,但在这两个时间间隔内,全球气候被认为分别相对温暖和相对寒冷。结果将与同一时期的气候模拟进行比较,以便我们能够更好地了解全球气候变化是否、如何以及为什么会导致El Niño活动的变化。该项目还将为一名博士生和一名本科生提供指导、国际、合作和多学科的培训,包括教育、推广和传播活动。它将为在一个具有丰富的前现代定居、航海和探索考古历史的地点和地区建立人、渔业和气候之间相互作用的模型提供输入。这些研究超出了本项目的范围,可能最终帮助我们了解社会如何适应过去和未来的气候变化。具体而言,配对氧同位素和Sr/Ca数据系列将从现有的和成岩筛选的珊瑚样本中开发,这些样本可追溯到小冰川期(LIA)和中世纪气候异常(MCA)时间窗口,来自南库克群岛(18.85S, 159.79W)。初步分析表明,该地区现代(PD)珊瑚氧同位素组成的年际变化主要反映了与ENSO活动相关的南太平洋辐合带位置和强度变化引起的海面盐度(SSS)变化。结合这些时间窗和PD的其他水文气候和海洋古气候数据,研究小组将测试LIA和MCA相对于PD是否存在年际事件振幅和复发间隔的差异。研究小组将把这些结果与类似采样的结果进行比较,这些结果符合pmip3的物理气候模拟,包括完整的和单一的外部辐射强迫。将在观测结果和模拟结果的不确定性范围内进行比较,以评估观测到的水文气候反应是否和在多大程度上是被迫的或非被迫的,以及通过何种机制。

项目成果

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Michael Evans其他文献

Towards an Inclusive Pedagogy for EAL in the Multilingual Classroom
在多语言课堂中实现 EAL 的包容性教学法
Sulcular penetration and diffusion into surrounding tissues of 14C-phenytoin and 14C-albumin.
14C-苯妥英和 14C-白蛋白通过龈沟渗透并扩散到周围组织中。
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    1981
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.5
  • 作者:
    Arnold D. Steinberg;Charles E. Joseph;Michael Evans
  • 通讯作者:
    Michael Evans
Media of Things: Supporting the Production of Metadata Rich Media Through IoT Sensing
物媒体:通过物联网传感支持元数据富媒体的制作
"It is there, and you need it, so why do you not use it?" Achieving better adoption of AI systems by domain experts, in the case study of natural science research
“它就在那里,你也需要它,那你为什么不使用它呢?”
  • DOI:
    10.48550/arxiv.2403.16895
  • 发表时间:
    2024
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Auste Simkute;Ewa Luger;Michael Evans;Rhianne Jones
  • 通讯作者:
    Rhianne Jones
A Framework for New Scholarship in Human Performance Technology
人类表现技术新学术框架
  • DOI:
    10.1111/j.1937-8327.2006.tb00363.x
  • 发表时间:
    2008
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Thomas M. Schwen;Howard K. Kaiman;Michael Evans
  • 通讯作者:
    Michael Evans

Michael Evans的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Michael Evans', 18)}}的其他基金

DeepGreen: A Deep Learning Based Tree-Ring Width Data Model for Paleoclimatic Data Assimilation
DeepGreen:基于深度学习的树木年轮宽度数据模型,用于古气候数据同化
  • 批准号:
    2303530
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 14.1万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: P2C2--Insights into Tropical Pacific Climate from Paleoproxy Data Assimilation into an Intermediate Complexity Dynamical Model
合作研究:P2C2——从古代理数据同化到中等复杂性动力模型中洞察热带太平洋气候
  • 批准号:
    2002469
  • 财政年份:
    2020
  • 资助金额:
    $ 14.1万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: P2C2--Hydroclimatic Response of El Nino-Southern Oscillation to Natural and Anthropogenic Radiative Forcing
合作研究:P2C2——厄尔尼诺-南方涛动对自然和人为辐射强迫的水文气候响应
  • 批准号:
    1903626
  • 财政年份:
    2019
  • 资助金额:
    $ 14.1万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Common Era Climate Variability from Marine Proxy Surrogate Reconstructions
合作研究:海洋代理替代重建的共同时代气候变化
  • 批准号:
    1536249
  • 财政年份:
    2015
  • 资助金额:
    $ 14.1万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Studio STEM: Engaging Middle School Students in Networked Science and Engineering Projects
Studio STEM:让中学生参与网络科学与工程项目
  • 批准号:
    1029756
  • 财政年份:
    2011
  • 资助金额:
    $ 14.1万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Gateways to Algebraic Motivation, Engagement and Success (GAMES): Supporting and Assessing Fraction Proficiency with Game-Based, Mobile Applications and Devices
代数动机、参与和成功的门户 (GAMES):使用基于游戏的移动应用程序和设备支持和评估分数熟练程度
  • 批准号:
    1118571
  • 财政年份:
    2011
  • 资助金额:
    $ 14.1万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
P2C2: ENSO Paleoclimatology in Queensland, Australia
P2C2:澳大利亚昆士兰州 ENSO 古气候学
  • 批准号:
    0902794
  • 财政年份:
    2009
  • 资助金额:
    $ 14.1万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Acquisition of a continuous flow isotope ratio mass analyzer for tropical paleoclimatology
购买用于热带古气候学的连续流同位素比质量分析仪
  • 批准号:
    0929983
  • 财政年份:
    2009
  • 资助金额:
    $ 14.1万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: P2C2--Locally-Constrained Climate Field Reconstructions of the Last Millennium: Methods and Application
合作研究:P2C2--上个千年的局部约束气候场重建:方法与应用
  • 批准号:
    0902715
  • 财政年份:
    2009
  • 资助金额:
    $ 14.1万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Social Organization, Learning Technologies & Discourse: System Features for Facilitating Mathematical Reasoning in PreK-3 Students
社会组织、学习技术
  • 批准号:
    0736151
  • 财政年份:
    2008
  • 资助金额:
    $ 14.1万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant

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  • 批准号:
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Ecosystem response to changing hydroclimatic regimes within Montane, Boreal and Taiga Ecozone transition areas; a multi-scale approach
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  • 批准号:
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    $ 14.1万
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  • 批准号:
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Ecosystem response to changing hydroclimatic regimes within Montane, Boreal and Taiga Ecozone transition areas; a multi-scale approach
生态系统对山地、北方和针叶林生态区过渡区域内不断变化的水文气候状况的响应;
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