Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Open or Closed For Business? The Political Economy of Trade Protection in Developing Nations

本博士论文研究支持项目超越了现有的经济改革政治文献，特别是贸易政策，重点关注最近在发展中国家积极使用反倾销（AD）政策。有证据表明，各国政府一直在宏观经济政策层面通过大幅削减关税来“改革”贸易，同时在不太明显的监管政策层面采取“后门”机制来逆转贸易自由化。然而，对于各国突然使用这些政策的差异，没有足够的解释，也没有明确确定决定提供保护的决定因素。该研究对三个主要发展中国家（阿根廷、墨西哥和南非）的反倾销政策进行了深入的定性和定量比较，并对发展中国家贸易保护的政治和经济决定因素进行了大规模的跨国统计分析。本研究聚焦于创建国家广告机构的决策变化以及机构随后的一般保护倾向，揭示了利益集团压力和制度背景影响政策采纳和实施的方式。特别是，该研究充实了行政人员和广告机构的特征如何与其他变量相互作用以影响政策过程。该研究利用了多种类型的证据，包括对机构专员、行业领袖、有组织的劳工官员和通常指导申诉和投诉程序的律师的采访；审查广告代理机构的记录和统计数据；制度因素的衡量包括行政权力、机构自主权和业务实力。利用这些类型的信息，本研究在对发展中国家国家级反倾销机构进行比较分析的基础上，考察了影响贸易保护政策的变量，并深入分析了国家和地方因素，特别是行业和部门的特征。该研究旨在通过国家和社会行为者之间复杂的相互作用来研究贸易保护政策过程，从而为发展中国家贸易政策的政治经济学文献做出贡献。此外，本研究还通过将利益集团压力与可能改变政策过程的制度联系起来的综合理论方法，丰富了关注国内利益集团保护需求和政府应对的内生保护理论框架。

This Doctoral Dissertation Research Support project moves beyond the existing literature on the politics of economic reform and specifically trade policy by focusing on the recent aggressive use of antidumping (AD) policy in the developing world. Evidence suggests that governments have been simultaneously "reforming" trade on the level of macroeconomic policy by slashing tariffs while adopting "backdoor" mechanisms to reverse trade liberalization at the less visible level of regulatory policy. There are not, however, adequate explanations for variation in nations' sudden use of these policies, nor have the determinants of the decision to provide protection been clearly identified.The research combines an in-depth qualitative and quantitative comparison of AD policy in three major developing countries-Argentina, Mexico, and South Africa-with a large-n, cross-national statistical analysis of the political and economic determinants of trade protection across the developing world. Focusing upon variation in the decision to create a national AD agency and agencies' subsequent general propensity to protect, the research sheds light upon the ways in which interest group pressure and institutional context shape policy adoption and implementation. In particular, the study fleshes out how characteristics of the executive and the AD agency interact with other variables to affect the policy process. The study draws upon a mixture of types of evidence, including interviews with agency commissioners, industry leaders, organized labor officials, and the lawyers who usually guide the AD petition and complaint process; examination of AD agency records and statistics; and measures of institutional factors including executive power, agency autonomy, and business strength. Using these types of information, the study examines the variables that influence trade protection policy on the basis of a comparative analysis of national-level AD agencies across developing nations, and in-depth analyses of national and sub-national factors-particularly characteristics of industries and sectors.The research is designed to contribute to the literature on the political economy of trade policy in developing nations by examining the trade protection policy process through the complex interactions of state and societal actors. Moreover, the study enriches the endogenous protection theoretical framework, which focuses on domestic interest groups' demands for protection and governments' responses, by employing an integrated theoretical approach that links interest group pressures to the institutions that potentially modify the policy process.