Impacts of Extreme Events: A Systematic Analysis of Individual Travel Choice Decision

项目摘要：极端事件的影响：个人出行选择决策的系统分析2001年9月11日（9/11）的悲剧性事件对曼哈顿下城和纽约市大都市区产生了难以想象的深刻影响。由于9/11事件，人们对交通方式安全性的看法发生了变化，这影响了个人选择工作和居住的方式和地点，以及企业选择地点的方式。9/11也给交通和城市规划者带来了巨大的挑战，因为在此类事件发生后，文献中没有关于如何解决交通和城市规划问题的指导方针。本调查的目的是：(a)评估作为对911悲剧的反应而发生的行为变化；(b)开始为研究极端事件对出行行为的影响奠定理论和实证基础。除其他外，这种知识将使：(a)运输机构和市政当局能够制定旨在恢复安全观念的政策；(b)新一代的规划者了解极端事件对个人选择的动态影响。本研究的贡献之一是为合理规划过程所需的旅行模型开发新的建模和数据评估方法。该研究将有助于回答有关曼哈顿下城未来的发展问题，以及受极端事件影响的任何其他城市地区。该项目预计将为极端事件对乘客和商业地点选择行为的影响的高级研究设计和构建理论和实证基础。这些知识对于必须处理极端事件后果的运输机构和市政当局至关重要。更具体地说，这个项目将导致：(a)更好地理解短暂的行为影响和加速恢复的最佳方法；(b)在更现实地描述选择过程的基础上，加强政策制定过程；(c)综合考虑备选间误差结构、尺度差异、未观察异质性、状态依赖性和状态依赖性中的异质性作用的理论行为决策框架。

PROJECT ABSTRACT: IMPACTS OF EXTREME EVENTS: A SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS OF INDIVIDUAL TRAVEL CHOICE DECISIONSThe tragic events of September 11th, 2001 (9/11) have had a profound and unimaginable impact on lower Manhattan, and the New York City metropolitan region. The changing perception of the safety of the transportation modes as a result of 9/11 is impacting the way in which the individuals make choices of mode and place of work and residence, and the way in which businesses make location decisions. 9/11 has also provided a monumental challenge to transportation and city planners because there are no guidelines in the literature on how to address travel and urban planning issues after such an event occurs. The objectives of this investigation are: (a) to assess the behavioral changes that have taken place as a response to the 9/11 tragedy; and (b) to begin laying the theoretical and empirical foundation for the study of the impacts of extreme events upon travel behavior. Among other things, this knowledge would enable: (a) transportation agencies and municipalities to devise policies aimed at restoring the perception of safety; and (b) a new generation of planners to understand the dynamic impacts of extreme events on individual choices. A contribution of this study will be the development of new approaches to modeling and data assessment for travel models required by a rational planning process. The research will assist in answering developing questions concerning the future of lower Manhattan, as well as any other urban areas affected by extreme eventsThis project is expected to design and structure the theoretical and empirical foundations for the advanced study of the impacts of extreme events upon passenger and business location choice behavior. This knowledge is of the utmost importance to transportation agencies and municipalities that have to deal with the aftermath of extreme events. More specifically, this project will lead to: (a) a better understanding of the transient behavioral effects and best ways to speed up recovery; (b) an enhanced policy making process based on more realistic depictions of choice processes; and (c) an integrated theoretical behavioral decision-making framework able to jointly consider the role of inter-alternative error structure, scale difference, unobserved heterogeneity, state dependence and heterogeneity in state dependence.