A New Model for Producing Highly Resolved Mobile Source Emissions

0302538 Niemeier最近在国家科学院的一份报告(国家研究理事会，2000年)中指出，改进与估计流动污染源清单有关的空间和时间输入和方法的重要性是一个关键问题。随着移动排放建模背后的科学进步，很明显，需要在交通和空气质量建模之间的界面上进行新的建模开发，以全面涵盖当代科学和技术见解。我们建议开发和测试一个新的移动源排放清单建模平台。具体地说，该模型将纳入三个主要进展：1)新的网格算法，它将改进移动排放产生活动的空间表示，并解决当前的库存缩放问题；2)使用更离散的车辆运行(Accel/Decel)特性来估计排放量的新算法；以及3)允许在网格尺度上指定与排放相关的重要因素(如控制技术和车辆分布)的新算法。然后，我们将把新模型应用于萨克拉门托地区，并比较基本情景和几种替代情景下的网格化库存排放之间的差异。通过研究不同的情景，我们将能够表征排放如何在空间上因两个因素而变化：所使用的排放因素的类型和用于分解交通活动的建模方法。新模型将能够产生用于光化学建模的更准确的网格排放所需的清单，以及用于监管目的(例如，国家实施计划和运输空气质量符合性)所需的清单。该模型将包括当前的监管排放系数(即，像加利福尼亚州那样由EPA产生或由EPA批准的排放系数)，以及新的尖端排放系数，这些系数将允许与当前的库存进行比较，并更好地考虑到离散车辆运营中的可变性导致的排放。

0302538 Niemeier The importance of improving the spatial and temporal inputs and methods associated with estimating mobile source inventories was recently identified as a key concern in a recent National Academy of Science report (National Research Council 2000). As the science behind the modeling of mobile emissions has advanced, it has become clear that new modeling developments at the interface between transportation and air quality modeling are needed to fully encompass contemporary scientific and technological insights. We propose to develop and test a new mobile source emissions inventory modeling platform. Specifically, three major advances will be incorporated into the model: 1) a new gridding algorithm that will improve the spatial representation of mobile emission generating activities and resolve current inventory scaling issues; 2) a new algorithm for estimating the emissions using more discrete vehicle operation (accel/decel) characteristics, and finally, 3) a new algorithm that will allow important emissions-related factors, such as control technology and vehicle distribution, to be specified at the grid scale. We will then apply the new model to the Sacramento region and compare the differences between the gridded inventory emissions under a base scenario and several alternative scenarios. By examining different scenarios, we will be able to characterize how emissions vary spatially due to two factors: the types of emission factors used and the modeling method used to disaggregate transportation activity. The new model will be capable of producing the inventories needed for more accurate gridded emissions for photochemical modeling as well as the inventories needed for regulatory purposes (e.g., state implementation plans (SIPs) and transportation air quality conformity). The model will include both current regulatory emission factors (i.e., those produced by EPA or approved by EPA as in the California case), which will allow comparison to current inventories, as well as new cutting edge emission factors that better account for emissions resulting from variability in discrete vehicle operations.