Observations, Physics and Modeling of the Phase-Locking of the El Nino Southern Oscillation to the Calendar Year

该项目将解决厄尔尼诺现象表现出与历年相锁定的持久性的趋势。据推测，这种锁定可能是由于季节平均流量对罗斯比波的放大而产生的。这种锁定季节周期的动力学将通过使用观测资料和一个简单的大气模式来研究。其目的是将这一现象的机制纳入一个中间的海洋-大气耦合模式，以便它可以代表自然界中所见的主要日历年锁相。在某些地区，厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）气候波动影响农业、水资源、渔业、飓风和野火的次数、取暖油的消耗以及饥荒和疾病的流行。加深对这些波动的了解可能会使许多国家的许多人受益。

This project will address the tendency of El Nino to exhibit persistence properties which are phase-locked to the calendar year. It is hypothesized that this locking may arise in response to the amplification of Rossby waves by the seasonal mean flow. The dynamics of this locking to the seasonal cycle are to be studied by employing observational data and a simple atmospheric model. The aim is to incorporate the mechanics of this phenomenon into an intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model, in order that is may represent the major calendar-year phase-locking seen in nature.El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate fluctuations influence agriculture, water resources, fisheries, the number of hurricanes and wildfires, heating oil consumption, and the prevalence of famine and disease in certain regions. Increased understanding of these fluctuations will probably benefit many people in many countries.