SGER: Invasion and Establishment Dynamics of West Nile Virus in the Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico, Colorado and Texas.

该SGER项目将沿着德克萨斯州、新墨西哥州和科罗拉多的格兰德河山谷近800公里的南北梯度对蚊子种群和西尼罗河病毒建立沿着进行采样。 2002年夏季的密集采样表明没有受感染的蚊子，预计西尼罗河病毒将于2003年夏季在格兰德河地区建立。本项目的目标是（1）记录西尼罗河病毒（WNV）在格兰德河流域蚊子种群中的初始建立模式，（2）确定WNV在初始建立事件之后的传播速度和方向，（3）确定主导环境因素（包括气候动态，鸟类宿主种群丰度和分布，栖息地类别，和人类土地利用模式），驱动蚊子和西尼罗河病毒发生的种群动态，（4）将野外数据应用于GIS和数学扩散模型的参数化，以试图发展对西尼罗河病毒持续扩张的预测能力。 该项目的智力价值在于，它有可能详细描述一种禽媒和蚊媒病毒首次在大型河流生态系统（格兰德河）中的定殖，并对其随后的传播发展一种数学理解。该项目成果的更广泛应用包括预测格兰德河和西南部其他潜在河流中西尼罗河病毒年度分布和强度的预测模型，以及对未来其他蚊媒疾病引入的理解（例如，登革热或裂谷热）传入北美。

This SGER project will sample mosquito populations and West Nile Virus establishment along a nearly 800 km north-south gradient of the Rio Grande valley in Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado. Intensive sampling in the summer of 2002 showed no infected mosquitoes, and it is predicted that WNV will become established in the Rio Grande region during the summer of 2003. The goals of this project are to (1) document the initial establishment patterns of West Nile Virus (WNV) in the Rio Grande Basin mosquito populations, (2) determine the rate and directions of spread of WNV subsequent to initial establishment events, (3) ascertain the predominant environmental factors (including climate dynamics, avian host population abundances and distributions, habitat classes, and human land use patterns) that drive the population dynamics of both mosquitoes and WNV occurrence, and (4) apply the field data to parameterize both GIS and mathematical dispersal models in an attempt to develop predictive capabilities for the continued expansion of WNV. The intellectual merit for this project lies in the potential to describe in detail the first colonization of an avian- and mosquito-borne virus into a large riverine ecosystem (the Rio Grande), and develop a mathematical understanding of its subsequent spread. The broader applications of the project results include predictive models for forecasting annual distributions and intensities of WNV in the Rio Grande and potentially other rivers of the Southwest, as well as an understanding for other future introductions of mosquito-borne diseases (e.g., dengue fever or Rift Valley fever) into North America.