Integrated Physical-Social-Economic System Dynamics Modeling for Managing Extreme Events Induced Risk on the U.S.-Mexico Border Crossing Infrastructure

陆地边境入境口岸在国家和区域层面都至关重要。通过提供合法和安全的过境点，它们有助于各国之间的人员和经济融合。然而，它们也实施了重要的控制和监管。该地区的过境基础设施、区域交通流量、当地经济和更广泛的社会活动在本质上是高度相互依存的。该系统的人员和贸易流动在很大程度上取决于运输和检查基础设施的能力和效率。这些相互作用，可能包括维持平衡的反馈调整或连续失败的级联，没有以综合的方式建模，也没有得到很好的理解，使得理解极端事件的总体影响变得困难。在一个系统中，极端事件引起的突然干扰或安全策略更改通常会导致对其他系统的级联和不良影响。由于系统动力学相互作用的非线性、随机性和时间滞后性，捕获冲击传播是一项挑战。该项目将制定一个综合边境基础设施风险管理框架，包括两个目标。第一个目标是为边界物理-社会-经济系统开发一个基于系统动态（SD）的框架和一套综合模型。这些模型将作为了解边界系统动态、预测降低风险政策的影响、评估缓解战略和模拟恢复过程的工具。第二是为边境地区制定风险评估和缓解框架和模型，特别强调评估过境基础设施系统的重要性，评估边境安全政策和操作，设计信息传播和公共和商业准备方案，并确定运输和检查系统的操作策略。

Land border ports of entry are critical in both national and regional terms. By offering legal and safe crossing points, they help integrate people and economies between nations. Yet they also apply important controls and regulations. The border-crossing infrastructure, regional traffic flows, local economy, and broader societal activities in the region are highly interdependent in nature. The flows of people and trade in the system are largely determined by the capacity and efficiency of the transportation and inspections infrastructure. These interactions, which may include feedback adjustments to maintain equilibrium or a cascade of successive failures, have not been modeled in an integrated fashion and have not been well understood, making understanding the overall impacts of extreme events difficult. Extreme-event-induced sudden disturbances or security policy changes in one system often lead to cascading and undesirable effects on the others. The challenges of capturing the impact propagation are due to nonlinearity, stochasticity, and time lags of system dynamical interactions. This project will develop an integrated border infrastructure risk management framework, which entails two objectives. The first objective is to develop a System Dynamic (SD) based framework and a set of integrated models for the border physical-social-economic system. These models will serve as tools for understanding border system dynamics, predicting the impacts of risk reduction policies, evaluating mitigation strategies, and modeling recovery processes. The second is to develop a risk assessment and mitigation framework and models for the border region, with a particular emphasis on assessing the criticality of border crossing infrastructure systems, evaluating border security policy and operations, designing information dissemination and public and business preparedness schemes, and identifying transportation and inspection system operations strategies.