Accounting for Reliability in Complex Engineering Systems Design

这笔赠款的目的是为复杂工程系统开发可靠性分析和基于可靠性的设计的方法和计算实用方法。其复杂性包括多个相互作用的学科、大量的设计变量、不确定信息的多层次细节的混合以及计算机模拟的广泛使用。这种复杂性阻碍了可靠性设计在实际工程系统设计问题中的广泛应用。这项研究将在两个互补的层面上处理这些复杂性。在可靠性分析层面，将发展高效和准确的可靠性分析方法，包括鞍点近似。在基于可靠性的设计层面，将建立能够有效地处理上述复杂性的基于可靠性的设计模型的策略和数学公式。所提出的方法将通过与工业界合作的基于可靠性的车辆安全设计问题进行演示、验证和验证。预计研究成果将为在复杂工程系统设计中实施可靠性分析和基于可靠性的设计提供行业高效和实用的工具，以降低成本和风险，缩短产品开发时间。该研究也将为一般不确定条件下的工程设计，如风险和不确定条件下的稳健设计和基于决策的设计提供计算方法。此外，研究成果还将有助于工程设计理论和方法、质量工程和系统工程领域的教育。

The objective of this grant is to develop methodologies and computationally practical approaches of reliability analysis and reliability-based design for complex engineering systems. The complexities include multiple interacting disciplines, large number of design variables, the mixture of multilevel details of uncertainty information, and the extensive use of computer simulations. The complexities have hampered the wide applications of reliability-based design in real-life engineering sytems design problems. This research will deal with the complexities at two complementary levels. At reliability analysis level, efficient and accurate reliability analysis methods, including Saddlepoint Approximations, will be developed. At reliability-based design level, strategies and mathematical formulations of reliability-based design models that can be solved efficiently with capabilities of dealing with the abovementioned complexities will be established. The proposed approaches will be demonstrated, verified, and validated through a reliability-based vehicle safety design problem by collaboration with industry. It is anticipated that the research results will provide industry efficient and practical tools for the implementation of reliability analysis and reliability-based design in complex engineering systems design with reduced product development times at reduced cost and risk. The research will also contribute computational methods to general engineering design under uncertainty, such as robust design and decision-based design under risk and uncertainty. In addition, the research results will contribute to education in the areas of engineering design theory and methodology, quality engineering, and systems engineering.